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On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution

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  • Carmines, Edward G.
  • Stimson, James A.

Abstract

How do political issues arise, and come to affect political party politics? We develop a theory and model of issue evolution, illustrating both by examining the dynamic evolution of the issue of racial desegregation. Our modeling concerns two central problems: (1) the structure of the evolution—a pattern of dynamic causality between the early policy cues from professional politicians, in Congress in the case at hand, and later mass response, and (2) the sequence of changes in elite behavior, changes in mass perceptions of party issue stances, changes in mass affect toward the parties, and changes in party identifications among citizens. We suggest that the causal process developed for the racial case is quite general for other times, other nations, and other issues. The theory of issue evolution is developed as a general statement of the organic connection between elite and mass behavior, a working model of the dynamics of American politics across time and issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmines, Edward G. & Stimson, James A., 1986. "On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 901-920, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:80:y:1986:i:03:p:901-920_18
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Meyer & Sieglinde Rosenberger, 2015. "Just a Shadow? The Role of Radical Right Parties in the Politicization of Immigration, 1995–2009," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17.
    2. Catherine E. De Vries & Sara B. Hobolt, 2012. "When dimensions collide: The electoral success of issue entrepreneurs," European Union Politics, , vol. 13(2), pages 246-268, June.
    3. Byron Shafer & Richard Spady, 2002. "The issue context of modern American politics: semiparametric identification of latent factors from Discrete data," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Maurits J. Meijers & Harmen van der Veer, 2019. "MEP Responses to Democratic Backsliding in Hungary and Poland. An Analysis of Agenda‐Setting and Voting Behaviour," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 838-856, July.
    5. Shyam Gouri Suresh & Scott Jeffrey, 2017. "The Consequences of Social Pressures on Partisan Opinion Dynamics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 242-259, March.
    6. Krause, Werner & Giebler, Heiko, 2020. "Shifting Welfare Policy Positions: The Impact of Radical Right Populist Party Success Beyond Migration Politics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 331-348.
    7. Maurits Meijers & Christian Rauh, 2016. "Has Eurosceptic Mobilization Become More Contagious? Comparing the 2009 and 2014 EP Election Campaigns in The Netherlands and France," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 83-103.
    8. Davide Angelucci & Pierangelo Isernia, 2020. "Politicization and security policy: Parties, voters and the European Common Security and Defense Policy," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(1), pages 64-86, March.
    9. Holger Reinermann, 2022. "Party competition and the structuring of party preferences by the left-right dimension," Rationality and Society, , vol. 34(2), pages 185-217, May.
    10. Julian M Hoerner, 2017. "Real scrutiny or smoke and mirrors: The determinants and role of resolutions of national parliaments in European Union affairs," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(2), pages 307-322, June.
    11. Jelle Koedam, 2021. "Avoidance, ambiguity, alternation: Position blurring strategies in multidimensional party competition," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(4), pages 655-675, December.
    12. Christoph Arndt, 2016. "Issue evolution and partisan polarization in a European multiparty system: Elite and mass repositioning in Denmark 1968–2011," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(4), pages 660-682, December.
    13. Edward G. Carmines, 1991. "The Logic of Party Alignments," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 3(1), pages 65-80, January.
    14. Catherine E. de Vries, 2007. "Sleeping Giant: Fact or Fairytale?," European Union Politics, , vol. 8(3), pages 363-385, September.
    15. Meijers, Maurits & Rauh, Christian, 2016. "Has eurosceptic mobilization become more contagious? Comparing the 2009 and 2014 EP election campaigns in the Netherlands and France," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 83-103.
    16. Christopher Wratil, 2018. "Modes of government responsiveness in the European Union: Evidence from Council negotiation positions," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(1), pages 52-74, March.
    17. Shyam Gouri Suresh & Scott Jeffrey, 2017. "The Consequences of Social Pressures on Partisan Opinion Dynamics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 242-259, March.

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