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Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior

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  • BISBEE, JAMES
  • HONIG, DAN

Abstract

The relationship between anxiety and investor behavior is well known enough to warrant its own aphorism: a “flight to safety.” We posit that anxiety alters the intensity of voters’ preference for the status quo, inducing a political flight to safety toward establishment candidates. Leveraging the outbreak of the novel coronavirus during the Democratic primary election of 2020, we identify a causal effect of the outbreak on voting, with Biden benefiting between 7 and 15 percentage points at Sanders’s expense. A survey experiment in which participants exposed to an anxiety-inducing prompt choose the less disruptive hypothetical candidate provides further evidence of our theorized flight to safety among US-based respondents. Evidence from 2020 French municipal and US House primary elections suggests a COVID-induced flight to safety generalizes to benefit mainstream candidates across a variety of settings. Our findings suggest an as-yet underappreciated preference for “safe” candidates in times of anxiety.

Suggested Citation

  • Bisbee, James & Honig, Dan, 2022. "Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 70-86, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:116:y:2022:i:1:p:70-86_6
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    Cited by:

    1. Malmberg, Alice & Scates, Daniel, 2023. "Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior: A Comment on Bisbee and Honig," I4R Discussion Paper Series 36, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    2. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling & Ye, Jing, 2023. "Precious metal as a safe haven for global ESG stocks: Portfolio implications for socially responsible investing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. José Santana-Pereira & Hugo Ferrinho Lopes & Susana Rogeiro Nina, 2023. "Sailing Uncharted Waters with Old Boats? COVID-19 and the Digitalization and Professionalization of Presidential Campaigns in Portugal," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.

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