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Accountability for the Local Economy at All Levels of Government in United States Elections

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  • DE BENEDICTIS-KESSNER, JUSTIN
  • WARSHAW, CHRISTOPHER

Abstract

Retrospective voting is a crucial component of democratic accountability. A large literature on retrospective voting in the United States finds that the president’s party is rewarded in presidential elections for strong economic performance and punished for weak performance. By contrast, there is no clear consensus about whether politicians are held accountable for the local economy at other levels of government, nor how voters react to the economy in a complex system of multilevel responsibility. In this study, we use administrative data on county-level economic conditions from 1969 to 2018 and election results across multiple levels of government to examine the effect of the local economy on elections for local, state, and federal offices in the United States. We find that the president’s party is held accountable for economic performance across nearly all levels of government. We also find that incumbents are held accountable for the economy in U.S. House and gubernatorial elections. Our findings have broad implications for literatures on representation, accountability, and elections.

Suggested Citation

  • De Benedictis-Kessner, Justin & Warshaw, Christopher, 2020. "Accountability for the Local Economy at All Levels of Government in United States Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 660-676, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:114:y:2020:i:3:p:660-676_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Khasanboev, Temurbek & Hessami, Zohal, 2023. "Crisis Management and Local Political Accountability," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277676, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Hessami, Zohal & Khasanboev, Temurbek, 2024. "Gender Bias in the Reelection of Politicians (When a Crisis Strikes)," IZA Discussion Papers 17081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Huai Zhang & Jin Zhang, 2023. "Political corruption and accounting choices," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3-4), pages 443-481, March.
    4. Juan Herreño & Matias Morales & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2023. "The Effect of Local Economic Shocks on Local and National Elections," Working Papers 23-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Eva Sørensen & Jacob Torfing, 2021. "Accountable Government through Collaborative Governance?," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, November.
    6. Fırat Gündem, 2023. "Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.

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