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When Do Citizens Respond Politically to the Local Economy? Evidence from Registry Data on Local Housing Markets

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  • LARSEN, MARTIN VINÆS
  • HJORTH, FREDERIK
  • DINESEN, PETER THISTED
  • SØNDERSKOV, KIM MANNEMAR

Abstract

Recent studies of economic voting have focused on the role of the local economy, but with inconclusive results. We argue that while local economic conditions affect incumbent support on average, the importance of the local economy varies by citizens’ interactions with it. More recent and frequent encounters with aspects of the local economy make those aspects more salient and, in turn, feature more prominently in evaluations of the incumbent government. We label this process “context priming.” We provide evidence for these propositions by studying local housing markets. Linking granularly detailed data on housing prices from Danish public registries to both precinct-level election returns and an individual-level panel survey, we find that when individuals interact with the housing market, their support for the incumbent government is more responsive to changes in local housing prices. The study thus provides a framework for understanding when citizens respond politically to the local economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Larsen, Martin Vinæs & Hjorth, Frederik & Dinesen, Peter Thisted & Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar, 2019. "When Do Citizens Respond Politically to the Local Economy? Evidence from Registry Data on Local Housing Markets," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 499-516, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:02:p:499-516_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Brännlund, Anton, 2021. "Zero per cent accountability? How low interest rates save governments from electoral defeats," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Olle Folke & Linna Martin & Johanna Rickne & Matz Dahlberg, 2021. "Politicians' neighbourhoods: Where do they live and does it matter?," Discussion Papers 2021-03, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    3. Richard Upward & Peter Wright, 2023. "Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour," Discussion Papers 2023-17, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    4. Hennig, Jakob, 2021. "Neighborhood quality and opposition to immigration: Evidence from German refugee shelters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Arroyo Abad, Leticia & Maurer, Noel, 2021. "Do Pandemics Shape Elections? Retrospective voting in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Beckmann, Paul & Fulda, Barbara & Kohl, Sebastian, 2020. "Housing and voting in Germany: Multi-level evidence for the association between house prices and housing tenure and party outcomes, 1980-2017," MPIfG Discussion Paper 20/6, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

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