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Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters

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  • WHITE, ARIEL

Abstract

This paper presents new causal estimates of incarceration’s effect on voting, using administrative data on criminal sentencing and voter turnout. I use the random case assignment process of a major county court system as a source of exogenous variation in the sentencing of misdemeanor cases. Focusing on misdemeanor defendants allows for generalization to a large population, as such cases are very common. Among first-time misdemeanor defendants, I find evidence that receiving a short jail sentence decreases voting in the next election by several percentage points. Results differ starkly by race. White defendants show no demobilization, while Black defendants show substantial turnout decreases due to jail time. Evidence from pre-arrest voter histories suggest that this difference could be due to racial differences in exposure to arrest. These results paint a picture of large-scale, racially-disparate voter demobilization in the wake of incarceration.

Suggested Citation

  • White, Ariel, 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-324, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:02:p:311-324_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Schroedel & Aaron Berg & Joseph Dietrich & Javier M. Rodriguez, 2020. "Political Trust and Native American Electoral Participation: An Analysis of Survey Data from Nevada and South Dakota," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1885-1904, September.
    2. Johannes W. Ligtenberg & Tiemen Woutersen, 2024. "Multidimensional clustering in judge designs," Papers 2406.09473, arXiv.org.
    3. Stephen B. Billings & Eric Chyn & Kareem Haggag, 2021. "The Long-Run Effects of School Racial Diversity on Political Identity," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 267-284, September.
    4. Eric Chyn & Kareem Haggag, 2023. "Moved to Vote: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhoods on Political Participation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1596-1605, November.
    5. Kevin Morris, 2021. "Welcome Home—Now Vote! Voting Rights Restoration and Postsupervision Participation," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(1), pages 140-153, January.
    6. Kaitlyn Woltz, 2022. "David Skarbek, The Puzzle of Prison Order: Why Life Behind Bars Varies Around the World," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 135-141, March.
    7. Doleac, Jennifer & Eckhouse, Laurel & Foster-Moore, Eric & Harris, Allison & Walker, Hannah & White, Ariel, 2022. "Registering Returning Citizens to Vote," IZA Discussion Papers 15121, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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