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Do Oil Prices Matter? The Case of a Small Open Economy

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  • Joao Tovar Jalles

    (Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper empirically evaluates the impact and effect of oil price fluctuations and shocks on French aggregate economic performance, industrial production index and inflation rate. Our methodology makes use of a multivariate VAR approach to analyse the stability and magnitude of this system by adopting different oil price specifications, together with a robustness check through the estimation of a St.Louis-type equation. We adopt several oil price specifications. Our results show that the main French macroeconomic aggregate variables have become progressively less reactive to oil price fluctuations and that the adjustment towards equilibrium levels have been done increasingly faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Tovar Jalles, 2009. "Do Oil Prices Matter? The Case of a Small Open Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 65-87, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2009:v:10:i:1:p:65-87
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. António Afonso & José Alves & João Jalles & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Energy Price Dynamics in the Face of Uncertainty Shocks and the role of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Global Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers REM 2024/0344, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Xiding Chen & Qinghua Huang & Weilun Huang & Xue Li, 2018. "The Impact of Sustainable Development Technology on a Small Economy—The Case of Energy-Saving Technology," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-11, February.
    4. Gaowang Wang & Heng-fu Zou, 2012. "Economic Globalization, Mercantilism and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 548, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    5. Liu, Luke, 2011. "Securitization and moral hazard: Does security price matter?," MPRA Paper 35004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Nor Ermawati Hussain & Hafizah Abdul Rahim, 2013. "The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 72-83, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price fluctuations; Multivariate VAR; Causality; Impulse Response; St.Louis Equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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