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Using intentions to predict fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes NORLING

    (Department of Economics, Mount Holyoke College)

Abstract

On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actually have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes NORLING, 2022. "Using intentions to predict fertility," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 257-282, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:88:y:2022:i:3:p:257-282
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2020.32
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Intentions; Rational expectations; Survey methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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