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Push, Pull, and Population Size Effects in Structural Development: Long-run Trade-offs

Author

Listed:
  • Oksana M. LEUKHINA

    (University of Washington)

  • Stephen J. TURNOVSKY

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

The process of structural transformation from the farm to a nonfarm sector is accompanied by technological change in both sectors and massive population growth. We investigate the effects of increasing population size (the population effect) and sector-specific productivity (the push and pull effects), both factor-neutral and factor-biased, in a parsimonious general equilibrium model under general forms of utility and production functions. All three effects may co-exist and interact in important ways. Generalizing the agricultural sector production function to CES is crucial for the population growth effect. Our analysis highlights how the relative importance of the three effects changes as the country develops and production and consumption conditions become more flexible.

Suggested Citation

  • Oksana M. LEUKHINA & Stephen J. TURNOVSKY, 2016. "Push, Pull, and Population Size Effects in Structural Development: Long-run Trade-offs," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 423-457, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:82:y:2016:i:4:p:423-457
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2016.18
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    Cited by:

    1. Loupias, Claire & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2019. "Technological changes and population growth: The role of land in England," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 198-210.
    2. Dalila Chenaf-Nicet, 2020. "Dynamics of Structural Change in a Globalized World: What Is the Role Played by Institutions in the Case of Sub-Saharan African Countries?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(4), pages 998-1037, September.
    3. Betty ASSE & Dalila CHENAF-NICET, 2021. "Note on the role of domestic and external demand on the process of premature deindustrialization," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 54, pages 145-160.
    4. Chi Pui Ho, 2024. "Towards a More Complete Theory of Structural Transformation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(1), pages 289-326, May.
    5. Perez Sebastian,Fidel & Steinbuks,Jevgenijs & Feres,Jose Gustavo & Trotter,Ian Michael, 2020. "Electricity Access and Structural Transformation : Evidence from Brazil's Electrification," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9182, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural transformation; Urbanization; Industrialization; Technological progress; Population growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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