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Functional Regression in Short-Term Prediction of Economic Time Series

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  • Daniel Kosiorowski

Abstract

We compare four methods of forecasting functional time series including fully functional regression, functional autoregression FAR(1) model, Hyndman & Shang principal component scores forecasting using one-dimensional time series method, and moving functional median. Our comparison methods involve simulation studies as well as analysis of empirical dataset concerning the Internet users behaviours for two Internet services in 2013. Our studies reveal that Hyndman & Shao predicting method outperforms other methods in the case of stationary functional time series without outliers, and the moving functional median induced by Frainman & Muniz depth for functional data outperforms other methods in the case of smooth departures from stationarity of the time series as well as in the case of functional time series containing outliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Kosiorowski, 2014. "Functional Regression in Short-Term Prediction of Economic Time Series," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 15(4), pages 611-626, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:csb:stintr:v:15:y:2014:i:4:p:611-626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Febrero-Bande, Manuel & de la Fuente, Manuel Oviedo, 2012. "Statistical Computing in Functional Data Analysis: The R Package fda.usc," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 51(i04).
    2. Philippe C. Besse & Herve Cardot & David B. Stephenson, 2000. "Autoregressive Forecasting of Some Functional Climatic Variations," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 673-687, December.
    3. Ricardo Fraiman & Graciela Muniz, 2001. "Trimmed means for functional data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 10(2), pages 419-440, December.
    4. Daniel Kosiorowski, 2015. "Two procedures for robust monitoring of probability distributions of economic data stream induced by depth functions," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 25(1), pages 55-79.
    5. Jerzy Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska & Dominik Mielczarek & Daniel Kosiorowski, 2014. "Sparse Methods for Analysis of Sparse Multivariate Data From Big Economic Databases," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 15(1), pages 111-132, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
    2. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski, 2018. "Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for the Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region - A Critical Overview," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(1), pages 53-73, March.
    3. Abdelmonaem Jornaz & V. A. Samaranayake, 2019. "A Multi-Step Approach to Modeling the 24-hour Daily Profiles of Electricity Load using Daily Splines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Siphumlile Mangisa & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Analyzing The Impact Of Brexit On Global Uncertainty Using Functional Linear Regression With Point Of Impact: The Role Of Currency And Equity Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 67(04), pages 1377-1388, June.
    5. Kosiorowski Daniel & Mielczarek Dominik & Rydlewski Jerzy P. & Snarska Małgorzata, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
    6. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy. P. Rydlewski, 2017. "Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region: A Critical Overview," Papers 1712.03797, arXiv.org.
    7. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski, 2017. "Aggregated moving functional median in robust prediction of hierarchical functional time series - an application to forecasting web portal users behaviors," Papers 1710.02669, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.

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