IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/csb/stintr/v15y2014i4p611-626.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Functional Regression in Short-Term Prediction of Economic Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Kosiorowski

Abstract

We compare four methods of forecasting functional time series including fully functional regression, functional autoregression FAR(1) model, Hyndman & Shang principal component scores forecasting using one-dimensional time series method, and moving functional median. Our comparison methods involve simulation studies as well as analysis of empirical dataset concerning the Internet users behaviours for two Internet services in 2013. Our studies reveal that Hyndman & Shao predicting method outperforms other methods in the case of stationary functional time series without outliers, and the moving functional median induced by Frainman & Muniz depth for functional data outperforms other methods in the case of smooth departures from stationarity of the time series as well as in the case of functional time series containing outliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Kosiorowski, 2014. "Functional Regression in Short-Term Prediction of Economic Time Series," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 15(4), pages 611-626, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:csb:stintr:v:15:y:2014:i:4:p:611-626
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://index.stat.gov.pl/repec/files/csb/stintr/csb_stintr_v15_2014_i4_n8.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Febrero-Bande, Manuel & de la Fuente, Manuel Oviedo, 2012. "Statistical Computing in Functional Data Analysis: The R Package fda.usc," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 51(i04).
    2. Philippe C. Besse & Herve Cardot & David B. Stephenson, 2000. "Autoregressive Forecasting of Some Functional Climatic Variations," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 673-687, December.
    3. Ricardo Fraiman & Graciela Muniz, 2001. "Trimmed means for functional data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 10(2), pages 419-440, December.
    4. Daniel Kosiorowski, 2015. "Two procedures for robust monitoring of probability distributions of economic data stream induced by depth functions," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 25(1), pages 55-79.
    5. Jerzy Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska & Dominik Mielczarek & Daniel Kosiorowski, 2014. "Sparse Methods for Analysis of Sparse Multivariate Data From Big Economic Databases," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 15(1), pages 111-132, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
    2. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski, 2018. "Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for the Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region - A Critical Overview," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(1), pages 53-73, March.
    3. Abdelmonaem Jornaz & V. A. Samaranayake, 2019. "A Multi-Step Approach to Modeling the 24-hour Daily Profiles of Electricity Load using Daily Splines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Siphumlile Mangisa & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Analyzing The Impact Of Brexit On Global Uncertainty Using Functional Linear Regression With Point Of Impact: The Role Of Currency And Equity Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 67(04), pages 1377-1388, June.
    5. Kosiorowski Daniel & Mielczarek Dominik & Rydlewski Jerzy P. & Snarska Małgorzata, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
    6. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy. P. Rydlewski, 2017. "Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region: A Critical Overview," Papers 1712.03797, arXiv.org.
    7. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski, 2017. "Aggregated moving functional median in robust prediction of hierarchical functional time series - an application to forecasting web portal users behaviors," Papers 1710.02669, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlo Sguera & Pedro Galeano & Rosa Lillo, 2014. "Spatial depth-based classification for functional data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(4), pages 725-750, December.
    2. Boente, Graciela & Parada, Daniela, 2023. "Robust estimation for functional quadratic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. Kosiorowski Daniel & Mielczarek Dominik & Rydlewski Jerzy P. & Snarska Małgorzata, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
    4. Miguel Flores & Salvador Naya & Rubén Fernández-Casal & Sonia Zaragoza & Paula Raña & Javier Tarrío-Saavedra, 2020. "Constructing a Control Chart Using Functional Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Daniel Kosiorowski & Jerzy P. Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska, 2019. "Detecting a structural change in functional time series using local Wilcoxon statistic," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 1677-1698, October.
    6. Fabrizio Maturo & Rosanna Verde, 2023. "Supervised classification of curves via a combined use of functional data analysis and tree-based methods," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 419-459, March.
    7. Daniel Kosiorowski & Jerzy P. Rydlewski & Ma{l}gorzata Snarska, 2016. "Detecting a Structural Change in Functional Time Series Using Local Wilcoxon Statistic," Papers 1604.03776, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    8. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
    9. Antonio Elías & Raúl Jiménez & Han Lin Shang, 2023. "Depth-based reconstruction method for incomplete functional data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 1507-1535, September.
    10. Dai, Wenlin & Mrkvička, Tomáš & Sun, Ying & Genton, Marc G., 2020. "Functional outlier detection and taxonomy by sequential transformations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Jorge R. Sosa Donoso & Miguel Flores & Salvador Naya & Javier Tarrío-Saavedra, 2023. "Local Correlation Integral Approach for Anomaly Detection Using Functional Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.
    12. Manuel Oviedo-de La Fuente & Celestino Ordóñez & Javier Roca-Pardiñas, 2020. "Functional Location-Scale Model to Forecast Bivariate Pollution Episodes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    13. J. A. Cuesta-Albertos & M. Febrero-Bande & M. Oviedo de la Fuente, 2017. "The $$\hbox {DD}^G$$ DD G -classifier in the functional setting," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 26(1), pages 119-142, March.
    14. Daniel Hlubinka & Irène Gijbels & Marek Omelka & Stanislav Nagy, 2015. "Integrated data depth for smooth functions and its application in supervised classification," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1031, December.
    15. Oluwasegun Taiwo Ojo & Antonio Fernández Anta & Rosa E. Lillo & Carlo Sguera, 2022. "Detecting and classifying outliers in big functional data," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 16(3), pages 725-760, September.
    16. Mia Hubert & Peter Rousseeuw & Pieter Segaert, 2015. "Multivariate functional outlier detection," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 24(2), pages 177-202, July.
    17. Ayse Yilmaz & Ufuk Yolcu, 2022. "Dendritic neuron model neural network trained by modified particle swarm optimization for time‐series forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 793-809, July.
    18. repec:cte:wsrepe:ws1506 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
    20. Zhang, Xianyang, 2016. "White noise testing and model diagnostic checking for functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 76-95.
    21. Manuel Oviedo-de la Fuente & Carlos Cabo & Celestino Ordóñez & Javier Roca-Pardiñas, 2021. "A Distance Correlation Approach for Optimum Multiscale Selection in 3D Point Cloud Classification," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csb:stintr:v:15:y:2014:i:4:p:611-626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Beata Witek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gusgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.