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On the Importance of Taking End-of-Life Expenditures into Account when Projecting Health-Care Spending

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  • Ha Dao
  • Luc Godbout
  • Pierre Fortin

Abstract

This paper examines health-care spending projections when the interaction between end-of-life care expenditures and declining mortality is taken explicitly into account. Based on Quebec's historical public health-care spending data and mortality rates for 20 age groups over the period 1998 to 2009, an econometric model is developed with the aim of differentiating "ordinary" health-care spending from end-of-life care expenditures. Numerical simulations reveal that the average annual growth rate of future health-care spending projected over the period 2009-2056 diminishes by about 0.19 to 0.23 percentage points. This implies a cumulative health-care savings of about 8.4 to 10.3 percent in 2056, independent of other health-related factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ha Dao & Luc Godbout & Pierre Fortin, 2014. "On the Importance of Taking End-of-Life Expenditures into Account when Projecting Health-Care Spending," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 40(1), pages 45-56, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:40:y:2014:i:1:p:45-56
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.2012-096
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric French & Elaine Kelly & Aurélie Côté‐Sergent & Damien Échevin & Pierre‐Carl Michaud, 2016. "The Concentration of Hospital‐Based Medical Spending: Evidence from Canada," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 627-651, September.
    2. Mayvis Rebeira & Eric Nauenberg, 2021. "Consideration of Trade-offs Regarding COVID-19 Containment Measures in the United States: Implications for Canada," Working Papers 210003, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    3. Xavier Piulachs & Ramon Alemany & Montserrat Guillen, 2014. "A joint longitudinal and survival model with health care usage for insured elderly," Working Papers 2014-07, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    4. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

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