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Análisis econométrico del comportamiento del desempleo en el Ecuador (segundo trimestre 2007 a cuarto trimestre 2017)

Author

Listed:
  • Oliva, Leobaldo Enrique Molero

    (Universidad del Zulia)

  • Eduardo, Salcedo Muñoz Virgilio

    (Universidad Técnica de Machala)

  • Vásquez, John Alexander Campuzano

    (Universidad Técnica de Machala)

  • Copo, Holger Fabrizzio Bejarano

    (Universidad Técnica de Machala)

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en brindar un análisis econométrico del comportamiento del desempleo en el Ecuador entre el segundo trimestre del 2007 al cuarto trimestre del 2017. El trabajo emplea la Ley de Okun como enfoque teórico para explicar el comportamiento de la tasa de desempleo. La metodología consistió en una estrategia empírica soportada en los modelos de rezagos distribuidos autorregresivos con cointegración según el enfoque de Pesaran y Shin. Los resultados encontrados sugieren que en promedio por cada 1% de crecimiento del producto hay una disminución contemporánea de la tasa de desempleo de 0,30 puntos porcentuales, pero también hay efectos que perduran en los siguientes trimestres. Se concluye que la reducción de la tasa de desempleo en el Ecuador implica un esfuerzo político y de diseno de instituciones en las relaciones laborales entre trabajadores y empresarios para dinamizar el mercado laboral.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliva, Leobaldo Enrique Molero & Eduardo, Salcedo Muñoz Virgilio & Vásquez, John Alexander Campuzano & Copo, Holger Fabrizzio Bejarano, 2019. "Análisis econométrico del comportamiento del desempleo en el Ecuador (segundo trimestre 2007 a cuarto trimestre 2017)," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 20(2), pages 22-48, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000520:018685
    DOI: 10.22267/rtend.192002.119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tasa de desempleo; ley de Okun; cointegración; mercado laboral;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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