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Comportamiento del gasto primario en Colombia: una evidencia empírica

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  • Viviana Sarmiento Guzmán

Abstract

Este documento presenta evidencia empírica sobre la relación entre el gasto público y el crecimiento económico en Colombia, para el periodo (1905-2010), bajo la metodología conocida como series de tiempo. Allí, se abordan dos grandes enfoques: el de endogeneidad y el de exogeneidad. El primero, afirma que el gasto es endógeno, elástico y procíclico frente al producto, mientras que el segundo lo considera exógeno y contracíclico. La primera perspectiva es conocida en la literatura económica como Ley de Wagner y, la segunda, obedece a un comportamiento keynesiano. No obstante, es importante subrayar que bajo estos dos escenarios se hace posible la existencia de un enfoque mixto, cuyas características obedecen a un comportamiento endógeno y contracíclico del gasto público frente al producto interno bruto (PIB). Los resultados sugieren que las series no son estacionarias, esto es, que son integradas de orden uno. Por su parte, el test de Cointegración de Johansen indica la existencia de una relación de largo plazo entre el PIB y el gasto público. Además, se encuentra un fuerte respaldo a la Ley de Wagner, debido a que la dirección de causalidad va del PIB al gasto público y los coeficientes de elasticidad son positivos y significativos.******This paper presents empirical evidence on the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth, in Colombia for the period (1905- 2010) under the methodology know as times series, addressing two major approaches: endogeneity and exogeneity. The first states that spending is endogenous, procyclical, elastic against the product, while the second is considered exogenous and countercyclical. The first perspective is known ineconomic literature as Wagner´s Law, and the second follows a Keynesian behavior. However, it is important to note that under these two scenarios, it is possible to have a mixed approach, the characteristics of which are due to endogenous and countercyclical behavior of government spending to GDP.The results suggest that the series are not stationary, i.e. they are integrated of order one. For its part, the Johansen cointegration´s test indicates the existence of a long-term relationship between GDP and public expenditure. In addition, there is a strong support for the Wagner´s Law, because the direction of causality runs from GDP to public spending, and the elasticity coefficients are positive and significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Sarmiento Guzmán, 2012. "Comportamiento del gasto primario en Colombia: una evidencia empírica," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 4(2), pages 113-126, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:010702
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    3. U. Mohanty & S. Raman & D. Rao, 2007. "Editorial," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 379-379, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ley de Wagner; gasto público; producto interno bruto; causalidad; cointegración.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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