IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000443/009374.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflación y crecimiento económico: determinantes del desempleo en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Nelson Manolo Chávez Munoz

Abstract

Este documento pretende establecer si la tasa de desempleo en Colombia es explicada por la inflación esperada y por la tasa de crecimiento económico para los anos comprendidos entre 2001 y 2009, suponiendo que los agentes económicos tienen expectativas adaptativas. Por otra parte, se intenta determinar si el crecimiento económico causa menores tasas de desempleo, comprobando así la Ley de Okun. Se utilizaron series de tiempo trimestralizadas del DANE, usando la metodología de la cointegración de Johansen (1995), estimando un vector de corrección de error y funciones de impulso-respuesta. Los resultados muestran que la tasa de desempleo para el periodo analizado disminuye si se incrementan las expectativas de inflación más que si se aumenta la tasa de crecimiento económico.******This work aims to establish if the unemployment rate in Colombia is determined by expected inflation and the rate of economic growth, between 2001 and 2009, assuming that economic agents have adaptive expectations, in order to determine if there is a contradistinction on the economical policy objectives, towards demonstrating if the Phillips curve is inverse or not. On the other, it analyzes if economic growth causes lower unemployment rates, testing Okun’s Law. It were used time series quarterized, where the main source of the database was Dane information, using the methodology of Johansen cointegration, estimating a vector error correction model and impulse response functions. The results show that the decreasement of unemployment rate is higher when there are increases on inflation expectation, than when there are increases on the economic growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson Manolo Chávez Munoz, 2010. "Inflación y crecimiento económico: determinantes del desempleo en Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 2(1), pages 29-52, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:009374
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://editorial.ucatolica.edu.co/ojsucatolica/revistas_ucatolica/index.php/RFYPE/article/view/543/564
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1998. "Un examen empírico de la curva de Phillips en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, December.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Alejandro Charry, 2003. "La Participación Laboral en Colombia según la Nueva Encuesta: ¿Cambian sus determinantes?," Borradores de Economia 250, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Teaching the Principles of Economics," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 519-524, Fall.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," Coyuntura Social 12955, Fedesarrollo.
    5. James Tobin, 1987. "Essays in Economics - Vol. 2: Consumption and Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 2, number 0262200643, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nelson Eduardo Barreto & Mauricio Caicedo, 2011. "Estimación de la curva de Phillips para Colombia, periodo mensual 2001 - 2007," Documentos de Investigación 8212, Universidad de los Llanos.
    2. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45, December.
    3. Nelson Manolo Chávez Munoz, Omaira Dayana Velázquez Mantilla, Mauricio Alejandro Mateus Tovar, 2011. "Cambios estructurales en la participación laboral en Colombia desde 1984 - 2008: un análisis econométrico del mercado laboral urbano para la generación de políticas de empleo," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, June.
    4. Carlos A. Arango & Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2006. "Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 24(50), pages 154-211, June.
    5. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha Alicia Misas Arango, 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 3244, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    7. Bogusław Czarny, 2011. "Chaos in Basics of Economics (About Ambiguity of the Terms "Positive Economics" and "Normative Economics")," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 25.
    8. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3246, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación estructural y análisis de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 64-117, Junio.
    10. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Erika Raquel Badillo & Lina Cardona-Sosa & Carlos Medina & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Christian Posso, 2019. "Twin instrument, fertility and women’s labor force participation: evidence from Colombian low-income families," Borradores de Economia 1071, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Héctor Mauricio Nunez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    13. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, 1999. "La inflación desde una perspectiva monetaria: un modelo P* para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 35, pages 5-53, May.
    14. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
    15. Mukherjee, Arijit & Zeng, Chenhang, 2022. "Social desirability of entry in a bilateral oligopoly—The implications of (non) sunk costs," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 12-19.
    16. Julio César Alonso & Andrés Mauricio Arcila, 2011. "Sciplore Mindmapping: Una forma fácil de organizar una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes de Economía 9104, Universidad Icesi.
    17. Jhon James Mora & Juan Muro, 2014. "Informality and minimum wages by cohort in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, August.
    18. Carlos Arias, David Chávez, José Rodriguez, 2011. "Análisis De La Economía Alemana En El Período 2002 – 2006," Revista Isocuanta 12296, Universidad Santo Tomás.
    19. Zauner, Martin, 2008. "Wettbewerbspolitische Beurteilung von Rabattsystemen im Postmarkt," WIK Discussion Papers 306, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.
    20. Rodrigo Avella, 2001. "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000443:009374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad Católica de Colombia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feuccco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.