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Inflation Expectations in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Fabia A de Carvalho
  • Mauricio S. Bugarin

Abstract

This paper tests the rationality of inflation forecasts surveyed in Mexico, Brazil, and Chile and identifies their recent formation rule. There is strong evidence that forecasts are unbiased, but forecasters have not been fully efficient in the use of available information. The paper assesses the importance of inflation targets to anchor inflation expectations in these countries and finds that in most cases there is room for improvement in credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabia A de Carvalho & Mauricio S. Bugarin, 2006. "Inflation Expectations in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 101-145, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:008652
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete, 2016. "Measuring the Monetary Policy’s Structural Credibility by the Expected Inflation Determinants: a Kalman Filter Approach for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.
    2. García-Verdú Santiago, 2012. "The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Mexico," Working Papers 2012-06, Banco de México.
    3. Carvalho, Fabia A. & Minella, André, 2012. "Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1371-1391.
    4. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Carlos Huertas Campos & Eliana González Molano & Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo, 2015. "La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 12699, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation forecasts; Mexico; Brazil; Chile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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