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Concesiones viales de cuarta generación (4G): Una estimación de su impacto económico y social

Author

Listed:
  • Raúl Castro Rodríguez
  • Humberto Bernal Castro

Abstract

Este artículo presenta metodologías y aplicaciones como estudio de caso para cuantificar el impacto económico y social de las concesiones 4G en Colombia. Para el impacto económico se utilizaron los Multiplicadores Leontief derivados de la Matriz Insumo Producto la cual se construye para el estudio de caso de la Matriz Utilización Desagregada en Productos Nacionales e Importados reportada por el DANE. Estos multiplicadores permiten estimar la contribución de estos proyectos al crecimiento económico. El impacto social se analizó mediante el Índice de Pobreza Monetaria y el Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional con la información reportada en la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares. Como estudio de caso para la aplicación de la metodología se utilizó el corredor Santana–Puerto Salgar localizado en Colombia. Los resultados generados por los Multiplicadores Leontief permiten calcular que por cada COP$1,0 invertido en las concesiones 4G, se generan COP$2,52 en términos brutos y COP$1,52 en términos netos. Este efecto multiplicativo genera un aporte al crecimiento del PIB nacional del 0,27%, 0,17% y 0,01% para los anos 2018, 2019 y 2020 respectivamente, durante la etapa de construcción, y 0,04% anual entre 2022 y 2024 durante la etapa de operación del corredor. El impacto social se cuantificó mediante la reducción del número de personas pobres en los departamentos afectados; se espera una reducción del Índice de Pobreza Monetaria de 32,1% a 23,2% durante la etapa de construcción y operación, y una reducción de 12,4% a 10,2% del Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional para el mismo periodo.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl Castro Rodríguez & Humberto Bernal Castro, 2019. "Concesiones viales de cuarta generación (4G): Una estimación de su impacto económico y social," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 13(2), pages 9-56, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000411:018396
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Concesiones 4G; multiplicadores Leontief; pobreza monetaria; pobreza multidimensional;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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