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La volatilidad del tipo de cambio paralelo en Venezuela 2005-2015

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Daniela Castillo Paredes
  • Josefa Ramoni-Perazzi

Abstract

El tipo de cambio paralelo constituye una de las principales variables económicas para la toma de decisiones en Venezuela. Para analizar el comportamiento de esta variable tomando en cuenta sus características inherentes, exceso de curtosis, persistencia y asimetría, se hace una síntesis teórica de los principales modelos estocásticos de volatilidad y, se estima un conjunto de modelos. El modelo que mejor ajusta el comportamiento de la variable es un EGARCH (1,1), que captura el efecto asimétrico de las perturbaciones estocásticas sobre la serie. Ante choques negativos (depreciación del tipo de cambio paralelo), la volatilidad asociada se incrementa, pero para choques positivos (apreciación del tipo de cambio paralelo), se mantiene constante.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Daniela Castillo Paredes & Josefa Ramoni-Perazzi, 2017. "La volatilidad del tipo de cambio paralelo en Venezuela 2005-2015," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(63), pages 95-135, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000152:015363
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tipo de cambio paralelo; volatilidad; persistencia; modelos estocásticos de volatilidad; EGARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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