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Foreign Debt Flows and the Credit Market: A Principal Agent Approach

Author

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  • Esteban Gómez
  • Andrés Murcia
  • Nancy Zamudio

Abstract

As has been documented in different studies, there is a close relationship between capital flows and domestic credit. This relationship emerges from different channels, which are usually not directly identified. In this paper, a principal-agent approach is proposed in order to disentangle the distinct channels through which shocks on capital debt flows can affect credit-related variables. The model predicts that a foreign credit crunch will not only adversely affect aggregate credit, but will reduce the proportion of firms with access to intermediated funds. Using a comprehensive micro data set for the period comprised between 1999Q1-2012Q1 on foreign debt flows and the relevant credit-related variables, a VEC model is estimated to empirically validate the predictions from the theoretical framework. Results confirm that, in the short-run, a negative shock to foreign funds effectively reduces the proportion of firms with access to intermediated finance (both local and foreign), whilst at the same time induces a substitution of funding by firms from foreign to local sources, thus effectively having a positive effect on domestic credit growth. Nonetheless, the estimated long-run relationship indicates that capital debt flows and domestic credit growth are positively related. These results have important policy implications, related with the potential impact on credit (and access) generated by the use of certain macro prudential measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2014. "Foreign Debt Flows and the Credit Market: A Principal Agent Approach," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(73), pages 87-103, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:011976
    DOI: 10.1016/S0120-4483(14)70021-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Zeeshan Nezami Ansari & Muzffar Hussain Dar & Shadman Zafar, 2023. "Do capital inflows affect domestic bank credit? Empirical evidence from India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Principal-agent model; Capital flows; Credit; VEC Models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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