IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000090/017429.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Kidnapping as a long-term factor for cruise tourism demand: Evidence from Mexico (El secuestro como factor de largo plazo para la demanda de turismo de cruceros: evidencia de México)

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Sánchez López
  • José Nabor Cruz Marcelo

Abstract

Cruise tourism is considered as one of the most attractive tourism segments and as one of the safest ways to travel. This document aims to analyse the impact that registered kidnappings have had on long-term cruise tourism. The analysis is carried out using an ARDL model with quarterly time series data for the period 1997Q1 – 2017Q4. The results indicate that the arrivals of cruise tourists has been inelastic in the face of the changes in the number of kidnappings although the negative effect of this violent crime remains in the long-term. Therefore, it is necessary to apply policies that generate the peace and tranquillity that should be given to travellers.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Sánchez López & José Nabor Cruz Marcelo, 2019. "Kidnapping as a long-term factor for cruise tourism demand: Evidence from Mexico (El secuestro como factor de largo plazo para la demanda de turismo de cruceros: evidencia de México)," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 83(5), pages 185-217, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:017429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://revistas.uniandes.edu.co/doi/pdf/10.13043/dys.83.5
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Egon Smeral, 2003. "A Structural View of Tourism Growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(1), pages 77-93, March.
    2. Lau, Evan & Oh, Swee-Ling & Hu, Sing-Sing, 2008. "Tourist Arrivals And Economic Growth In Sarawak," MPRA Paper 9888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Duha Altindag, 2014. "Crime and International Tourism," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Meehan, Catriona & Hynes, Stephen, 2014. "Following the economic footprint of a Cruise Ship," Working Papers 262580, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
    5. Guillaume Chevillon & Xavier Timbeau, 2006. "L'impact du taux de change sur le tourisme en France," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 98(3), pages 167-181.
    6. Enamorado, Ted & López-Calva, Luis F. & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Winkler, Hernán, 2016. "Income inequality and violent crime: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 128-143.
    7. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(1 (Spring), pages 31-53.
    8. Hrvoje Caric, 2010. "Direct pollution cost assessment of cruising tourism in the Croatian Adriatic," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 161-180.
    9. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    10. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    11. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1743 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jamie M. Chen & Bart Neuts & Peter Nijkamp & Jingjing Liu, 2016. "Demand Determinants of Cruise Tourists in Competitive Markets: Motivation, Preference and Intention," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 227-253, April.
    14. P. Srinivasan & Santhosh Kumar P. K & L. Ganesh, 2012. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 211-226, September.
    15. Guido Candela & Paolo Figini, 2012. "The Economics of Tourism Destinations," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-20874-4, October.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    17. Hung, Kam & Petrick, James F., 2011. "Why do you cruise? Exploring the motivations for taking cruise holidays, and the construction of a cruising motivation scale," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 386-393.
    18. Turgut Bayramoğlu & Yılmaz Onur Arı, 2015. "The relationship between tourism and economic growth in greece economy: a time series analysis," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 89-93, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Sánchez López, 2019. "Unemployment and Growth in the Tourism Sector in Mexico: Revisiting the Growth-Rate Version of Okun’s Law," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    3. Meng-Chang Jong & Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah, 2022. "Tourism Sustainability: Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in South Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 412-417, November.
    4. Peter Josef Stauvermann & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Nikeel N. Kumar, 2018. "Effect of tourism on economic growth of Sri Lanka: accounting for capital per worker, exchange rate and structural breaks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 49-68, February.
    5. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    6. Jagannath Mallick, 2024. "Impact of economic globalisation and productivity on labour share in India and China," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 137-168, June.
    7. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yilanci, Veli & Aslan, Murat & Ozgur, Onder, 2021. "Disaggregated analysis of the curse of natural resources in most natural resource-abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Mehmood, Shafaqat & Ahmad, Zahid & Khan, Ather Azim, 2016. "Dynamic relationships between tourist arrivals, immigrants, and crimes in the United States," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 383-392.
    10. Aamir Jamal & G. M. Bhat, 2023. "Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(3), pages 449-472, September.
    11. Hinsene Lemma Wegari & Sisay Tolla Whakeshum & Negese Tamirat Mulatu, 2022. "Human Capital and its Impact on Ethiopian Economic Growth: ARDL Approach to Co-integration," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 12(4), pages 78-100.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ramzi Benkraiem & Anthony Miloudi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 757-778, August.
    13. Sadia Bano & Mehtab Alam & Anwar Khan & Lu Liu, 2021. "The nexus of tourism, renewable energy, income, and environmental quality: an empirical analysis of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14854-14877, October.
    14. Teplova, Tamara V. & Rodina, Victoria A., 2021. "The reinvestment risk premium in the valuation of British and Russian government bonds," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Arvian Triantoro & Muhammad Zaheer Akhtar & Shiraz Khan & Khalid Zaman & Haroon ur Rashid Khan & Abdul Wahab Pathath & Muhamad Amar Mahmad & Kamil Sertoglu, 2023. "Riding the Waves of Fluctuating Oil Prices: Decoding the Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 34-50, March.
    16. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Hsiao, Juei-Ming & Huang, Tsai-Yuan, 2016. "Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-59.
    17. Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Faisal,, 2022. "Financial development and natural resources. Is there a stock market resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    19. Ogunmola, Omotoso Oluseye & Verter, Nahanga & Obayelu, Abiodun Elijah, 2023. "Factors Influencing the Prices of Rice, Maize and Wheat Prices in Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 15(1), January.
    20. Md. Saiful Islam & Anis ur Rehman & Imran Khan, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Environmental Technology on CO 2 Emissions in Saudi Arabia: A Quantile-Based NARDL Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-21, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; Mexico; travel abroad; violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Z30 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - General
    • Z39 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000090:017429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad De Los Andes-Cede (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceandco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.