IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cmj/networ/y2016i7p93-108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Anticipation Of The Number Of Tourists Arrived In Mamaia Using The Type Of Models Arima

Author

Listed:
  • Kamer Ainur M. AIVAZ

    (Ovidius University of Constanta)

  • Ion Danut I. JUGANARU

    (Ovidius University of Constanta)

  • Mariana C. JUGANARU

    (Ovidius University of Constanta)

Abstract

The Mamaia station is, at the moment, the biggest and the most looked for touristic station from the Romanian seaside of the Black Sea. From the analysis of the evolution of the main indicators of touristic circulation from the last 10 years (2006-2015), we can notice a significant increase, but we are also interested in knowing the tendency of their modification in the near future. For this reason, in the present study, we wanted to test the contribution of the models ARIMA to the elaboration of an anticipation regarding the indicators: arrivals of tourists, totally and structurally: Romanians and foreigners, for Mamaia station. We consider that the results obtained in this study may contribute to the defining of the strategy of development of the station and ensuring the necessary conditions for hosting a significant greater number of tourists, in the following years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamer Ainur M. AIVAZ & Ion Danut I. JUGANARU & Mariana C. JUGANARU, 2016. "The Anticipation Of The Number Of Tourists Arrived In Mamaia Using The Type Of Models Arima," Network Intelligence Studies, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 7, pages 93-108, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmj:networ:y:2016:i:7:p:93-108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://seaopenresearch.eu/Journals/articles/NIS_7_8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson, 2004. "Unit Root Testing in a Central Bank," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 22, April.
    2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility and Stock Prices Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria, 1986-2012," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-4.
    2. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    3. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    4. Athanasopoulos, George & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 116-129, September.
    5. Eric Ghysels & Leonardo Iania & Jonas Striaukas, 2018. "Quantile-based Inflation Risk Models," Working Paper Research 349, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2017. "A fresh look at integration of risks in the international stock markets: A wavelet approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 33-49.
    7. Tomanova, Lucie, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 267, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    8. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    9. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    10. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    11. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    12. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    13. Adugna Lemi & Sisay Asefa, 2009. "Differential Impacts of Economic Volatility and Governance on Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of US Multinationals in Africa," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 367-395.
    14. Zia-Ur- Rahman, 2019. "Influence of Excessive Expenditure of the Government in Perspective of Interest Rate and Money Circulation Which in Turn Affects the Growing Process in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 120-129.
    15. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    16. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Mohamed Doukali & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2024. "Testing Granger non-causality in expectiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 30-51, January.
    17. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    18. Evrim Imer-Ertunga, 2011. "Global financing conditions and sovereign debt yields of emerging market countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 207-215.
    19. Ngene, Geoffrey & Tah, Kenneth A. & Darrat, Ali F., 2017. "Long memory or structural breaks: Some evidence for African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-73.
    20. Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss & Suardi, Sandy, 2007. "Testing for rate dependence and asymmetry in inflation uncertainty: Evidence from the G7 economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 383-388, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourists arrivals; Auto regressive models; Prevision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • Z33 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Marketing and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmj:networ:y:2016:i:7:p:93-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Serghie Dan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://seaopenresearch.eu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.