IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cmj/networ/y2014i4p161-172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship Between Inflation And The Main Macroeconomic Variables In Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Ionuţ Cristian BACIU

    (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iaşi)

Abstract

The inflation is considered an important economic phenomenon that adversely affects the economy of a state. The purpose of this study is to highlight the significant statistical connections between the inflation rate and the main macroeconomic variables influencing the inflationary phenomenon (money supply, the monthly net average nominal wage, exchange rate, reference interest rate), depending on the monetary policy strategy adopted by the National Bank of Romania. The research is conducted using monthly data for the period June 1997 – December 2013, with the explorative method of Principal Components Analysis. The results indicate the fact that for the period June 1997 – July 2005, the inflation rate is strongly correlated with the growth rate of monthly net average nominal wage, while for the period after the adoption of the direct targeting regime in August 2005, it is observed a strong link between the inflation rate and the reference interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ionuţ Cristian BACIU, 2014. "The Relationship Between Inflation And The Main Macroeconomic Variables In Romania," Network Intelligence Studies, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 4, pages 161-172, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmj:networ:y:2014:i:4:p:161-172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://seaopenresearch.eu/Journals/articles/NIS_4_4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 2003. "A multi-country comparison of the linkages between inflation and exchange rate competitiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 167-184.
    2. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
    3. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2003. "The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 585-608, November.
    4. Budina, Nina & Maliszewski, Wojciech & de Menil, Georges & Turlea, Geomina, 2006. "Money, inflation and output in Romania, 1992-2000," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 330-347, March.
    5. Vasile Dedu & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2009. "Underlying Factors Of Persistent Inflation In Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(11), pages 1-38.
    6. Pelinescu Elena, 2006. "Modelarea inflaţiei în România," Revista OEconomica, Romanian Society for Economic Science, Revista OEconomica, issue 01, March.
    7. Roberto Golinelli & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp09, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
    8. Capraru Bogdan & Ihnatov Iulian, 2011. "External Factors Influence On Inflation: The Case Of Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 469-475, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Kasim & Bentouir Naima, 2018. "The Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Nominal Interest Rate in Bolivarian Republic Of Venezuela: Revisiting Fisher’s Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 7(4), pages 214-224, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Allsopp & Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2006. "United Kingdom Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages 232-244, June.
    2. Mohamed Ali Chroufa & Nouri Chtourou, 2023. "Asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and inflation in Tunisia: fresh evidence from multiple-threshold NARDL model and Granger quantile causality," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Tapiwa D. Karoro & Meshach J. Aziakpono & Nicolette Cattaneo, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through To Import Prices In South Africa: Is There Asymmetry?1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 380-398, September.
    4. Capraru Bogdan & Ihnatov Iulian, 2011. "External Factors Influence On Inflation: The Case Of Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 469-475, July.
    5. Rebecca Driver & Stephen Millard, 2004. "Exchange rates, commodities and the implications of volatility in a small open economy world," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 26, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Flamini, Alessandro, 2007. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1113-1150, November.
    7. Laure Frey & Benoît Mojon, 2009. "Le dollar et l’inflation mondiale," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 81-106.
    8. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    9. Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel, 2017. "Modelling the effect of exchange rate on inflation in Ghana," MPRA Paper 99395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tapiwa D. Karoro & Meshach J. Aziakpono & Nicolette Cattaneo, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through To Import Prices In South Africa: Is There Asymmetry?1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 380-398, September.
    11. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2003. "The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 585-608, November.
    12. Christopher Allsopp & Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2006. "U.K. inflation targeting and the exchange rate," Working Papers 2006-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Lagoa, Sérgio, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in open economies: Empirical evidence for G7 countries on the role of import prices and the cost channel," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 354-371.
    14. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    15. Chandrarin, Grahita & Sohag, Kazi & Cahyaningsih, Diyah Sukanti & Yuniawan, Dani & Herdhayinta, Heyvon, 2022. "The response of exchange rate to coal price, palm oil price, and inflation in Indonesia: Tail dependence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 2002. "Inflation-Targeting, Exchange-Rate Pass-Through, and Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 102-107, May.
    17. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    18. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Yakub, Ma'aji Umar & Sanni, Ganiyu Kayode & Duke, Omolara, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 25053, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2010.
    19. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Gaetano D’Adamo, 2014. "Wage spillovers across sectors in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 523-552, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Principal component analysis; Inflation rate; Reference interest rate; Price stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmj:networ:y:2014:i:4:p:161-172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Serghie Dan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://seaopenresearch.eu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.