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Einige unkonventionelle Gedanken zum Leben nach der Krise

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  • Gunther Tichy

Abstract

Die politische und mediale Diskussion sieht die gegenwärtige Finanzkrise überwiegend als Folge von Fehlentwicklungen im Banksystem; aktive Konjunkturpolitik könnte die Krise überwinden und schärfere Regulierung das Entstehen künftiger Krisen verhindern. Das scheint zu optimistisch; zweifellos haben problematische Deregulierungen und unverantwortliches Bankverhalten die Krise ausgelöst, doch die Verwerfungen liegen tiefer. Zunehmend ungleichmäßige Einkommen- und Vermögensverteilung in den Industrie- wie zunehmende Ersparnisbildung in den Schwellenländern haben gemeinsam mit abnehmender Kreditnachfrage der Schwellenländer, der Wirtschaft (langsames Wachstum und hohe Gewinne) wie der Regierungen (Maastricht) zu Anlageproblemen der Banken und daraus resultierend (aber nicht zu entschuldigen) zu unverantwortlichen Geschäftspraktiken geführt. Schärfere Regulierung allein wird somit wenig bringen, wenn nicht die Sparungleichgewichte beseitigt werden. Weniger Sparen und mehr Konsum wird auch unverzichtbar sein, wenn der Staat seine stark gestiegenen Schulden wieder abbauen will; denn die restriktive Wirkung der dazu erforderlichen Budgetüberschüsse muss durch höhere Nachfrage von Konsumenten oder Wirtschaft kompensiert werden. Eine Rückkehr zu ‚normalem’ krisenfreien Wachstum erfordert aber auch Änderungen im Verhalten der Wirtschaft: Dass die (amerikanische) Hypothekarkrise nicht bloß auf die europäischen Banken sondern auf die gesamte Wirtschaft übergreifen konnte, hängt mit deren geringer Krisenresistenz zusammen, die aus rein am kurzfristigen Gewinn orientierten Praktiken resultiert: Minimierung des Eigenkapitals, Verzicht auf Reserven und Lager, temporäre Arbeitskräfte statt Stammbelegschaft, Konzentration auf ein schmale Palette von Produkten und Kunden, etc. Ein gutes Leben nach der Krise wird auch in diesem Bereich ein Umdenken erfordern.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Tichy, 2009. "Einige unkonventionelle Gedanken zum Leben nach der Krise," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 35(4), pages 501-513.
  • Handle: RePEc:clr:wugarc:y:2009v:35i:4p:501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    2. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
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    1. Ewald Walterskirchen, 2010. "The Burst of the Real Estate Bubble – More Than a Trigger for the Financial Market Crisis," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 15(1), pages 86-93, April.
    2. Gunther Tichy, 2011. "Die Staatsschuldenkrise: Ursachen und Folgen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 84(12), pages 797-810, December.
    3. Markus Marterbauer, 2010. "Budgetkonsolidierung in Zeiten verminderter Erwartungen," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 36(3), pages 299-323.
    4. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2012:v:38i:2p:185 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gunther Tichy, 2012. "Der missbrauchte Keynes Überlegungen zur traditionellen Makropolitik," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 38(2), pages 185-196.
    6. Hans Pitlik & Norbert Gruber & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2010. "An International Comparison of Success Factors for Budget Consolidation Strategies," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 15(2), pages 198-210, July.
    7. Hans Pitlik & Norbert Gruber & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2010. "Erfolgsfaktoren von Budgetkonsolidierungsstrategien im internationalen Vergleich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 83(3), pages 233-245, March.
    8. Gunther Tichy, 2012. "The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes and Consequences," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 17(2), pages 95-107, May.

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