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The great Canadian slump: a rejoinder to Freedman and Macklem

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  • Pierre Fortin

Abstract

In this rejoinder the key role played by high interest rates in the Canadian economic and fiscal crisis of 1990-96 is reaffirmed. I argue that (i) important econometric biases could have led many to underestimate the effects of high interest rates on output; (ii) it is imprudent to conduct monetary policy as if the long-run Phillips curve was sure to be vertical at very low inflation rates; (iii) supply-side explanations of the Canadian slump of the 1990s are hard to reconcile with existing macroeconomic evidence; and (iv) during sustained slumps, popular smoothing techniques lead to substantial underestimates of potential output and the structural fiscal balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Fortin, 1999. "The great Canadian slump: a rejoinder to Freedman and Macklem," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1082-1092, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:32:y:1999:i:4:p:1082-1092
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    2. Mardi Dungey & John Pitchford, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Growth on Inflation, Australia, Canada and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 438, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    3. Rafael Gomez & David K. Foot, 2003. "Age Structure, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(s1), pages 141-162, January.
    4. Michael Bradfield, 2007. "The Kinked Demand Curve with a Conjectural Hitch – A Micro Extension with Macro Implications," Working Papers daleconwp2007-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    5. Paul Jenkins & Brian O'Reilly, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Economic Well-being of Canadians," The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress, in: Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director & France St-Hilaire, Vice-President , Research & Keith Banting, Di (ed.), The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress 2001: The Longest Decade: Canada in the 1990s, volume 1, Centre for the Study of Living Standards;The Institutute for Research on Public Policy.
    6. Lars Osberg & Zhengxi Lin, 2000. "How Much of Canada's Unemployment is Structural?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 141-157, July.
    7. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates Since 1950," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(3), pages 415-453, September.
    8. Ron Kneebone & John Leach, 2001. "The Accumulation of Public Debt in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 27(3), pages 297-312, September.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates since 1950," Working Papers 320, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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