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Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena

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  • Yan Carrière-Swallow
  • Carlos A. Medel V.

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the impact of global uncertainty shocks –identified as sudden jumps in U.S. stock market volatility– on certain sectors of the Chilean economy. Using a reduced-form VAR approach, we estimate that uncertainty shocks generate a fall in GDP of 1.7% with respect to trend, and a fall in domestic demand of 2.2% within three quarters. On the supply side, the sector in which activity falls most is construction (-4.0%), while the largest drops in demand occur in durable goods consumption (-7.0%) and investment in plant and equipment (-10.0%). These results are broadly consistent with the literature on investment under uncertainty with partial irreversibility, and provide preliminary evidence about possible mechanisms through which global uncertainty affects emerging markets, with corresponding implications for stabilization policy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Yan Carrière-Swallow & Carlos A. Medel V., 2011. "Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(3), pages 75-82, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchni:v:14:y:2011:i:3:p:75-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    2. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Medel, Carlos, 2011. "Incertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur," Working Papers 2011-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Luis Ceballos S. & Mario González F., 2012. "Indicador de Condiciones Económicas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 105-117, April.
    3. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.

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