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Chinas Wachstumsmodell in Schwierigkeiten: Wie groß ist das Risiko für die Weltkonjunktur?

Author

Listed:
  • Antonia Reinecke
  • Hans-Jörg Schmerer
  • Carsten A. Holz
  • Frederik Kunze
  • Torsten Windels
  • Horst Löchel
  • Markus Taube

Abstract

Zu Beginn dieses Jahres häuften sich die schlechten Nachrichten über die Konjunkturentwicklung Chinas. Welche Auswirkungen sind für Deutschland und Europa zu erwarten? Antonia Reinecke und Hans-Jörg Schmerer, FernUniversität Hagen, sehen eine Abkehr von der etablierten Wachstumsstrategie Chinas angesichts der akkumulierten Überkapazitäten als unausweichlich an. Die Abhängigkeit der Weltkonjunktur von China sollte allerdings nicht überschätzt werden. Carsten A. Holz, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, sieht die chinesische Gesellschaft im Moment in einer Phase zwischen zwei Wachstumsmodellen. Für Ausländer sei in diesem neuen China wenig Platz. Nach Ansicht von Frederik Kunze und Torsten Windels, NORD/LB, muss ein Abschwung in China zukünftig noch stärker als potenzieller Risikofaktor berücksichtigt werden, da die Bedeutung Chinas für die Weltwirtschaft zugenommen habe. Dagegen ist für Horst Löchel, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Chinas Wirtschaftspolitik auf dem richtigen Weg und die Risiken für die Weltwirtschaft überschaubar, wenn es zu keiner harten Landung der chinesischen Volkswirtschaft kommt. Markus Taube, Universität Duisburg-Essen, sieht die besondere Herausforderung für China darin, dass derzeit gleich mehrere der bisherigen Säulen des chinesischen Wachstumsmodells wegbrechen und somit ein grundlegender struktureller Neuanfang notwendig sei. In der Summe seien bereits Strukturverschiebungen zu beobachten und auch weiterhin zu erwarten. Allerdings könnten die europäischen Volkswirtschaften Ende dieses Jahres einem gänzlich anders gearteten Schock ausgesetzt sein. Würde dann der VR China der Status einer »Marktwirtschaft« zugestanden, hätte dies einschneidende Folgen für die wettbewerbliche Ordnung Europas.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonia Reinecke & Hans-Jörg Schmerer & Carsten A. Holz & Frederik Kunze & Torsten Windels & Horst Löchel & Markus Taube, 2016. "Chinas Wachstumsmodell in Schwierigkeiten: Wie groß ist das Risiko für die Weltkonjunktur?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(07), pages 05-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:07:p:05-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wachstumstheorie; Internationale Konjunktur; Wirtschaftspolitik; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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