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ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima trübt sich weiter ein – Ergebnisse des 131. World Economic Survey (WES) für das erste Quartal 2016

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  • Johanna Garnitz
  • Gernot Nerb

Abstract

Der ifo Indikator für die Weltwirtschaft sank von 89,6 auf 87,8 Punkte und entfernte sich damit weiter von seinem langfristigen Durchschnitt. Zwar hellten sich die Lagebeurteilungen geringfügig auf, die Erwartungen sind hingegen weniger positiv als im Vorquartal. Der starke Rückgang der Ölpreise scheint im Weltdurchschnitt keinen positiven konjunkturellen Effekt zu haben. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft lässt weiterhin an Dynamik vermissen. Mit Ausnahme von Europa unterschreitet der Indikator in allen Regionen seinen jeweiligen langfristigen Durchschnitt. Das Klima in den GUS-Staaten und dem Nahen Osten trübte sich vor allem aufgrund der negativeren Konjunkturerwartungen ein. In Europa sind die WES-Experten bezüglich der kommenden Entwicklung etwas weniger positiv gestimmt als im Oktober 2015. Für 2016 erwarten die WES-Experten im weltweiten Durchschnitt einen Preisanstieg von 3,2%, nach einer Inflationsrate von 3,0% im Vorjahr. Die Inflationserwartungen für den Euroraum 2016 betragen 1,0% und liegen damit knapp einen halben Prozentpunkt höher als die für 2015 gemeldete Inflationsrate.

Suggested Citation

  • Johanna Garnitz & Gernot Nerb, 2016. "ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima trübt sich weiter ein – Ergebnisse des 131. World Economic Survey (WES) für das erste Quartal 2016," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(04), pages 70-82, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:04:p:70-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tilman Br�ck & Bengt-Arne Wickstr�m, 2004. "The Economic Consequences of Terror: A Brief Survey," HiCN Working Papers 03, Households in Conflict Network.
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    1. Simon Litsche & Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2016. "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Maschinenbau," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(05), pages 33-37, March.

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