IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v66y2013i02p30-33.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2012: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Nach den am 15. Januar 2013 veröffentlichten vorläufigen Ist-Ergebnissen hat das reale BIP im Jahr 2012 um 0,7% zugenommen. Maßgeblich für den Prognosefehler in Höhe von 0,3 Prozentpunkten war, dass die Wachstumsrate für das reale BIP im ersten Quartal 2012 mit 0,5% um 0,4 Prozentpunkte höher ausgefallen war, als vom ifo Institut im Dezember 2011 geschätzt. Die erhöhte statistische Ausgangsbasis bewirkt eine Anhebung der jahresdurchschnittlichen Wachstumsrate in ähnlicher Größenordnung. Dass sich der jahresdurchschnittliche Prognosefehler für das reale BIP aber dennoch nur auf 0,3 Prozentpunkte beläuft, liegt – bei einem zutreffend eingeschätzten konjunkturellen Verlauf im Sommerhalbjahr 2012 – am damals nicht vorgesehenen Rückgang der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion im Jahresendquartal.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2012: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(02), pages 30-33, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:02:p:30-33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2013_02_4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Benjamin Born & Christian Breuer & Teresa Buchen & Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Wol, 2012. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2012/2013: Erhöhte Unsicherheit dämpft deutsche Konjunktur erneut," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(13), pages 15-68, July.
    2. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger & Tim Oliver Berg & Benjamin Born & Teresa Buchen & Christian Breuer & Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Nikolay Hristov & Micha, 2011. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2011/2012: Schuldenkrise bremst deutsche Wirtschaft aus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(24), pages 26-72, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Westermann, 2014. "Discussion of "Target2 and Central Bank Balance Sheets"," IEER Working Papers 99, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    2. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2012. "Investitionen im Sog der Finanzkrise – Mobilien-Leasing wächst noch überdurchschnittlich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(19), pages 47-50, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Wirtschaftskonjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Statistische Methode; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:02:p:30-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.