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Keynessche Nachfrageschwäche: das derzeit dominierende Problem in der deutschen Industrie

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  • Gernot Nerb

Abstract

Die derzeitige Rezession im verarbeitenden Gewerbe Deutschlands ist ganz überwiegend die Folge einer globalen Nachfrageschwäche und nicht Zeichen mangelnder Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Dies wird durch aktuelle Umfrageergebnisse aus dem Konjunkturtest für das verarbeitende Gewerbe belegt: Während die eigene Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in Deutschland weiterhin deutlich höher eingeschätzt wird als im EU-Durchschnitt, ist der Auftragsmangel nach Ansicht der im ifo Konjunkturtest befragten Unternehmen in den letzten Monaten eindeutig zum alles dominierenden Problem geworden. Der Anteil der Industriefirmen, die über eine Nachfrageschwäche berichten, ist seit Anfang 2007 von rund 14% aller Unternehmen zunächst langsam und ab dem dritten Quartal 2008 schubartig auf zuletzt rund 52% aller Industriefirmen gestiegen. Angebotsprobleme, wie Arbeitskräftemangel oder unzureichende Kapazitäten, spielen demgegenüber eine untergeordnete Rolle und wurden nur noch von rund 8% der Industriefirmen genannt, während dieser Anteil zu Jahresmitte 2007 noch gut ein Fünftel aller Industriebetriebe ausmachte. Noch etwas häufiger als im Industriedurchschnitt berichten derzeit die Industriefirmen aus dem Vorleistungsbereich der Industrie, z.B. Eisen und Stahl, Chemie etc., über Nachfrageprobleme. Hier hat der Anteil der Firmen, die unter der Nachfrageflaute leiden, einen neuen Höchststand seit der Wiedervereinigung erreicht. Im Investitionsgüterbereich der Industrie war der entsprechende Firmenanteil Anfang 1993 zwar schon einmal ähnlich hoch wie derzeit, allerdings war damals ein deutlich größerer Teil der Firmen als heute der Ansicht, dass die Nachfrageprobleme nur vorübergehender Natur seien.

Suggested Citation

  • Gernot Nerb, 2009. "Keynessche Nachfrageschwäche: das derzeit dominierende Problem in der deutschen Industrie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(11), pages 35-38, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:11:p:35-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
    2. Edmond Malinvaud & Jean-Paul Fitoussi (ed.), 1980. "Unemployment in Western Countries," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-16407-3, June.
    3. E. Malinvaud & Y. Younès, 1977. "Some New Concepts for the Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics," International Economic Association Series, in: G. C. Harcourt (ed.), The Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 62-95, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Zur Produktionsbehinderung der Unternehmen im Konjunkturzyklus: Eine Compositional-Data-Analyse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(05), pages 21-27, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrie; Internationaler Wettbewerb; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage; Keynesianismus; Auftrag; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Perfect Competition
    • L00 - Industrial Organization - - General - - - General

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