IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifodre/v31y2024i05p08-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Der Einfluss von ökonomischer und politischer Unsicherheit auf Fertilität im Nachgang der Coronakrise

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Neufing

Abstract

Die Geburtenrate in Deutschland hat 2023 mit 1,35 Kindern pro Frau ein 15-Jahres-Tief erreicht. Dieser Rückgang steht in Zusammenhang mit der gestiegenen ökonomischen sowie politischen Unsicherheit, wie die Analyse anhand des Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) zeigt. Ein Anstieg der ökonomischen und politischen Unsicherheit in Deutschland führt mit einer Zeitverzögerung von ca. 14 Monaten zu einem signifikanten Rückgang der Geburten, ohne dass später ein Aufholeffekt sichtbar wird. Diese Ergebnisse verdeutlichen die Bedeutung politischer und ökonomischer Stabilität für die Geburtenrate.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Neufing, 2024. "Der Einfluss von ökonomischer und politischer Unsicherheit auf Fertilität im Nachgang der Coronakrise," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(05), pages 08-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:31:y:2024:i:05:p:08-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifoDD_24-05_08-11_Neufing.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2017. "The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(51), pages 1549-1600.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    6. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    7. Armelius, Hanna & Hull, Isaiah & Stenbacka Köhler, Hanna, 2017. "The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 31-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joachim Ragnitz, 2024. "Zahl der Geburten in Deutschland nimmt drastisch ab," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(05), pages 03-07, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulo Vitor Souza de SOUZA & César Augusto Tibúrcio SILVA, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and adaptability in international capital markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 85-100, Spring.
    2. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Matousek, Roman & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Papachristopoulou, Andromachi, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the capital shortfall of global financial firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Zhou, Kexuan & Kumar, Sanjay & Yu, Linhui & Jiang, Xinlin, 2021. "The economic policy uncertainty and the choice of entry mode of outward foreign direct investment: Cross-border M&A or Greenfield Investment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Anna Matzner & Birgit Meyer & Harald Oberhofer, 2023. "Trade in times of uncertainty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2564-2597, September.
    6. Limão, Nuno & Handley, Kyle, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 9615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Prüser, Jan & Schlösser, Alexander, 2017. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on European economies: Evidence from a TVP-FAVAR," Ruhr Economic Papers 708, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Regulatory Complexity and Policy Uncertainty: Headwinds of Our Own Making," Economics Working Papers 15118, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    9. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Freund, Lukas B. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2021. "Volatile hiring: uncertainty in search and matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Paraskevi Tzika & Stilianos Fountas, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in Europe before and after the Eurozone crisis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(4), pages 330-352, July.
    12. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2023. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Azevedo, Alcino & Colak, Gonul & El Kalak, Izidin & Tunaru, Radu, 2024. "The timing of voluntary delisting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    14. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Yi Zhang & Mengyang Wang & Tao Shi & Huan Huang & Qi Huang, 2023. "Health Damage of Air Pollution, Governance Uncertainty and Economic Growth," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Boulton, Thomas J., 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and international IPO underpricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    19. Li, Fengchun & Liang, Ting & Zhang, Hailian, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect cross-border M&As? —— A data analysis based on Chinese multinational enterprises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: are there regional and country correlation?," MPRA Paper 105636, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:31:y:2024:i:05:p:08-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.