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Gesamtwirtschafliche ifo Kapazitätsauslastungen für die deutschen Bundesländer

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Konjunkturelle Analysen auf der Ebene der deutschen Bundesländer sind aufgrund des Fehlens zentraler Konjunkturindikatoren nur eingeschränkt bis gar nicht möglich. In diesem Beitrag präsentieren wir eine gesamtwirtschafliche ifo Kapazitätsauslastung für die Bundesländer und erweitern damit die regionale Datenbasis in Deutschland. Daraus lassen sich zwei zentrale Erkenntnisse gewinnen. Erstens unterscheiden sich die konjunkturellen Entwicklungen in den einzelnen Bundesländern teilweise erheblich. Zweitens zeigt sich ein hoher Gleichlauf zwischen der ifo Kapazitätsauslastung und einer geschätzten Produktionslücke auf der Ebene der Bundesländer. Da die ifo Daten keinen nennenswerten Revisionen unterliegen, könnte der neue Indikator auch für eine zeitnahe und einfach nachvollziehbare Berechnung der strukturellen Finanzierungssalden der Bundesländer herangezogen werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2022. "Gesamtwirtschafliche ifo Kapazitätsauslastungen für die deutschen Bundesländer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 29(03), pages 19-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:29:y:2022:i:03:p:19-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Lehmann, Robert & Wikman, Ida, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," MPRA Paper 112642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    1. Magdolna Hiersemenzel & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2022. "On the Representativeness of the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 9863, CESifo.

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