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Wie man wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit empirisch messen kann – Eine Darstellung am Beispiel von Deutschland

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  • Niels Gillmann
  • Alexander Hilgenberg

Abstract

In wirtschaftlichen Krisen steigt auch die Unsicherheit über die weitere Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Die empirische Messung dieser Unsicherheit ist allerdings schwierig, da diese nicht direkt beobachtet werden kann, sondern anhand von anderen verfügbaren Variablen abgeleitet werden muss. Deswegen gibt es viele verschiedene Ansätze, um Unsicherheit messbar zu machen. In diesem Artikel stellen wir die bekanntesten Ansätze anhand von Beispielen für Deutschland vor und überprüfen, welcher Ansatz am vielversprechendsten für die Messung von Unsicherheit erscheint. Die Ansätze unterscheiden sich teils deutlich voneinander. Insgesamt scheinen allerdings die Unsicherheitsmaße basierend auf Unternehmensbefragungen am besten für die Quantifizierung von Unsicherheit in Deutschland geeignet zu sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Niels Gillmann & Alexander Hilgenberg, 2021. "Wie man wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit empirisch messen kann – Eine Darstellung am Beispiel von Deutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(02), pages 24-29, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:28:y:2021:i:02:p:24-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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