Transcaucasia: Towards a New Explosion?

The article attempts to analyze the current situation in Transcaucasia and identify the main actors, factors of influence and forces that shape the processes of domestic development in a number of republics of the region. The author comes to the conclusion that the region is in a state of “cooldown†, after 25 years of almost continual instability which, in turn, was a source of numerous internal conflicts. However, broad analysis of internal situation in the states of Transcaucasia with the inclusion of foreign influences shows a more complex landscape. Major players, such as the US and Russia, avoid increasing their presence in the region, which opens a wideWINDOW of opportunities for regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran. Against the background of decreasing interest in Transcaucasia by the world leaders, the region is returning to its historical status as a periphery. This process is characterized by a reduction in the influence of foreign actors and a rise in the role of the factors that cause general instability. These include, first and foremost, unresolved conflicts, unstable political, social and economic situation at home and specific political behaviors displayed by local elites. The April war of 2016 in Nagorno-Karabakh indicates a violation of the status quo and may lead to a high probability of new clashes in the conflict zone. The war highlighted a complex set of problems faced by Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent years. In both countries, against a backdrop of degrading economies, there is a growing split between the government and the society, as well as tensions within the elites. Similar processes are on the rise in Georgia. The situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is somewhat different, as the two countries could be classified as periphery to a periphery, and thus are developing in isolation from the common Caucasian agenda. Nevertheless, these countries also show a complex set of internal contradictions which tend to break out from time to time. This is symptomatic of a serious challenge facing the region. The countries that emerged on the other side of the Caucasus Mountains since 1991 are still searching for optimal models of national development.