IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cbu/jrnlec/y2012v4ip52-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact Of Political And Economic News On The Euro/Ron Exchange Rate: A Garch Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Cristi Spulbar

    (University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Mihai Nitoi

    (University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent period is to be avoided because it can have financial and economic consequences with a very high cost for Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristi Spulbar & Mihai Nitoi, 2012. "The Impact Of Political And Economic News On The Euro/Ron Exchange Rate: A Garch Approach," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 52-58, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2012:v:4i:p:52-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.utgjiu.ro/revista/ec/pdf/2012-04.I/7_SPULBAR%20Cristi.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Art Durnev & Kan Li & Randall Mørck & Bernard Yeung, 2004. "Capital markets and capital allocation: Implications for economies in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 593-634, December.
    2. Goriaev, Alexei & Zabotkin, Alexei, 2006. "Risks of investing in the Russian stock market: Lessons of the first decade," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 380-397, December.
    3. Helinä Laakkonen, 2007. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Exchange Rate Volatility," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 23-40, Spring.
    4. Prast, H.M. & de Vor, M.P.H., 2005. "Investor reactions to news : A cognitive dissonance analysis of the euro-US dollar exchange rate," Other publications TiSEM 06e6443b-10cd-4029-a50b-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Birz, Gene & Lott Jr., John R., 2011. "The effect of macroeconomic news on stock returns: New evidence from newspaper coverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2791-2800, November.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    7. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Prast, Henriette M. & de Vor, Marc P. H., 2005. "Investor reactions to news: a cognitive dissonance analysis of the euro-dollar exchange rate," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-141, March.
    9. Richard Clarida & Daniel Waldman, 2007. "Is Bad News About Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 13010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stefan Collignon & Piero Esposito & Hanna Lierse, 2013. "European Sovereign Bailouts, Political Risk And The Economic Consequences Of Mrs. Merkel," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-25.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "How much does economic news influence bilateral exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Dynamic news effects in high frequency Euro exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 238-258, July.
    3. Imane El Ouadghiri & Valérie Mignon & Nicolas Boitout, 2016. "On the impact of macroeconomic news surprises on Treasury-bond returns," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 29-53, February.
    4. Imane El Ouadghiri & Valerie Mignon & Nicolas Boitout, 2014. "On the impact of macroeconomic news surprises on Treasury-bond yields," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-20, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Rognone, Lavinia & Hyde, Stuart & Zhang, S. Sarah, 2020. "News sentiment in the cryptocurrency market: An empirical comparison with Forex," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    7. Rafał Wolski & Monika Bolek & Jerzy Gajdka & Janusz Brzeszczyński & Ali M. Kutan, 2023. "Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 757-794, February.
    8. Gabriella Cagliesi & Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina & Massimo Tivegna, 2016. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: How Traders’ Behaviour Has Been Affected by the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 139-177, July.
    9. James Ming Chen, 2017. "Systematic Risk in the Macrocosm," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, in: Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing, chapter 0, pages 239-274, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Macro news and stock returns in the Euro area: A VAR-GARCH-in-mean analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 180-188.
    11. Balázs Égert, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 655-677, November.
    12. Agata Kliber & Blanka Let & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2016. "Socio-demographic characteristics of investors in the Warsaw Stock Exchange – How they influence the investment decision," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(2), pages 91-118.
    13. Laakkonen, Helinä & Lanne, Markku, 2009. "The Relevance of Accuracy for the Impact of Macroeconomic News on Volatility," MPRA Paper 23718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta, 2016. "U.S. Macroeconomic News and International Stock Prices: Evidence from Newspaper Coverage," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(1), pages 247-247, February.
    15. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Prast, H.M., 2007. "The psychology and economics of attitudes in the Netherlands," Other publications TiSEM eb014910-35cd-44a4-986e-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Maria Ogneva, 2013. "Discussion of What Do Management Earnings Forecasts Convey About the Macroeconomy?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 267-279, May.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2019. "The exchange rate effects of macro news after the global Financial Crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 424-443.
    19. El Ouadghiri, Imane & Uctum, Remzi, 2016. "Jumps in equilibrium prices and asymmetric news in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 218-234.
    20. Roman Goldbach & Christian Fahrholz, 2011. "The euro area's common default risk: Evidence on the Commission's impact on European fiscal affairs," European Union Politics, , vol. 12(4), pages 507-528, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2012:v:4i:p:52-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ecobici Nicolae (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fetgjro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.