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Relationship Between Energy Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation; A Case Study of South Asian Economies

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  • Atiq-ur-Rehman

    (International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad)

Abstract

Monetary policy tools, including money supply and interest rate, are the most popular instruments to control inflation around the globe. It is assumed that a tight monetary policy, either in form of reduction in money supply or an increase in interest rate, will reduce inflation by reducing aggregate demand in an economy. However, monetary policy could be counterproductive if cost side effects of monetary tightening prevail. High energy prices may increase the cost of production by reducing aggregate supply in the economy. If tight monetary policy is used to reduce this cost push inflation, the cost side effect of energy prices will add to cost side effects of monetary tightening and will become dominant. In this case, the monetary policy could be counterproductive. Furthermore, simultaneous reduction in aggregate supply and aggregate demand will bring twofold reduction in output. Therefore greater care is needed in the use of monetary policy in the situation of cost push inflation. This article investigates the presence of cost side effect of monetary transmission mechanism, the role of international oil prices in domestic inflation, and implications for monetary policy. The findings suggest that both monetary policy and oil prices have cost side effects on inflation and monetary tightening could be counterproductive if used to reduce energy pushed inflationary trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2014. "Relationship Between Energy Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation; A Case Study of South Asian Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 3(1), pages 43-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:3:y:2014:i:1:p:43-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fazal, Rizwan & Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2022. "Graph theoretic approach to expose the energy-induced crisis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Uddin , Ijaz, 2020. "What determine inflation in Pakistan: an investigation through structural equation modeling by using time series data for a period from 1975 to 2017," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 32(4), pages 54-72.
    3. Razmi, Seyedeh Fatemeh & Moghadam, Marjan Heirani & Behname, Mehdi, 2021. "Time-varying effects of monetary policy on Iranian renewable energy generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 1161-1169.
    4. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2015. "Revival of Legacy of Tooke and Gibson: Implications for Monetary Policy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(2), pages 37-58.
    5. Srinita Srinita & Kharisya Ayu Effendi, 2021. "Energy Policy Analysis, Monetary and Fiscal on Inflation Volatility in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 309-314.
    6. Godwin Edet Bassey & Uduak Michael Ekong, 2019. "Energy Consumption and Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria: An ARDL Cointegration Approach," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(2), pages 66-83, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Cost Channel; Demand Channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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