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Employment Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?

Author

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  • Byrne, Stephen

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McIndoe-Calder, Tara

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

The improvement in the Irish labour market since late 2012 has been remarkable. Unemployment has fallen towards 5 per cent, while the number of persons employed in the state has now surpassed it pre-crisis peak. Using detailed microdata from the CSO’s Labour Force Survey, we suggest that decreases in unemployment and increased labour force participation will not be sufficient to support employment growth at current levels over the short to medium term. As such, strong net inward migration will be the most important source of employment growth if the economy continues to grow at the rates seen over the last number of years.

Suggested Citation

  • Byrne, Stephen & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2019. "Employment Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 122-148, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:qtbart:y:2019:m:07:p:122-148
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrjan, Pawel & Lydon, Reamonn, 2019. "Clicks and jobs: measuring labour market tightness using online data," Economic Letters 6/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2018. "Missing wage growth in the euro area: is the wage Philips curve non-linear?," Economic Letters 9/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    9. Mamertino, Mariano & Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 51-53.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boyd, Laura & Byrne, Stephen & Keenen, Enda & McIndoe Calder, Tara, 2022. "Labour market recovery after a pandemic," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-129, July.
    2. Boyd, Laura & Keenan, Enda & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2023. "Earnings growth under high inflation," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-123, September.

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