Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers

Is the simultaneity, between 1997 and 2007, of a great number of future retired people and the important rise of residential prices, a random effect ? In this article, temporal and geographical elements, completed with a panel model, allow answering negatively; a causal relation exists. Taking into account demographic factors such as size and structure of the population leads to a minimization of rates, wages and construction roles in determining residential prices. In the present ?grandpa-boom? environment, the model indicates that this factor could generate a slow price decrease. However, the question of intergenerational competition arises. While 75% of the retired people are owners, the pro-?grandpa-boomers? orientation of the fiscal and housing policies has to be questioned. The residential building stock can be estimated around 6 300 and it registered a value creation of 3 700 billion euros; it cannot be considered as being off balance. Would not deflation, austerity and ?grandpa-boom? be synonyms ?