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L'évaluation du prix des actions par les fondamentaux : analyse du marché français

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  • Dominique Pépin

Abstract

We build a discounted profit model to test whether changes in market fundamentals explain movements in stock prices. Empirical results on a French stock-price index show that profits explain a significant share of the index fluctuations, but less than half of the variation in stock prices is due to changes in aggregated profits. The implication is that financial cycles are mainly due to non-fundamental causes. The author?s study, conducted over a long period, also shows that theoretical stock prices are hard to estimate accurately. The fundamental value of equities is difficult to estimate even when profits are simply equal to their long-term value.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Pépin, 2010. "L'évaluation du prix des actions par les fondamentaux : analyse du marché français," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 83-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_195_0083
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