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Forecasting Migration and Integration Trends Using Digital Demography – A Case Study of Emigration Flows from Croatia to Austria and Germany

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  • Jurić Tado

    (Catholic University of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

This paper was created as a result of the observed instability of external emigration data from Croatian official data in comparison to data from the statistical offices of the European Union (Eurostat) and Germany (DESTATIS). In this study, the author presents a descriptive analysis of alternative data sources (big data), which could be useful for determining emigration flows from Croatia to Austria and Germany, as well as for estimating and forecasting. The second goal of this paper is to show that this approach can be useful for assessing the degree of cultural assimilation/integration of Croatian emigrants using the tools of Google Trends and Facebook Analytics. To estimate the model, linear regression was used to measure the correlation between the number of searches (x) and the number of moves (y) evidenced by the official statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurić Tado, 2022. "Forecasting Migration and Integration Trends Using Digital Demography – A Case Study of Emigration Flows from Croatia to Austria and Germany," Comparative Southeast European Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 70(1), pages 125-152, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:soeuro:v:70:y:2022:i:1:p:125-152:n:12
    DOI: 10.1515/soeu-2021-0090
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jurić, Tado, 2021. "Google Trends as a Method to Predict New COVID-19 Cases and Socio-Psychological Consequences of the Pandemic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(forthcomi).
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