IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/sndecm/v12y2008i2n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures in the Presence of Jumps

Author

Listed:
  • Chan Wing Hong

    (City University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

A dynamic hedging strategy based on a bivariate GARCH-jump model augmented with autoregressive jump intensity is proposed to manage currency risk. The GARCH-jump model, capable of capturing volatility clustering and leptokurtosis, provides a comprehensive description of the joint dynamics of the currency spot rate and the futures basis. We find significant common jump components in the currency spot rate and futures basis with jump sizes response asymmetrical to futures basis changes. Our out-of-sample hedging exercises show optimal hedge ratios incorporating information from common jump dynamics substantially reduce the portfolio risk of foreign currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan Wing Hong, 2008. "Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures in the Presence of Jumps," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:12:y:2008:i:2:n:4
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1571
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1571
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1558-3708.1571?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Chan, Wing H., 2004. "Conditional correlated jump dynamics in foreign exchange," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 23-28, April.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    5. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    6. Carolyn W. Chang & Jack S.K. Chang & Hsing Fang, 1996. "Optimum futures hedges with jump risk and stochastic basis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 441-458, June.
    7. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E & Werker, Bas J M, 1998. "Estimation and Testing in Models Containing Both Jump and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 237-243, April.
    8. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    9. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 53-65, March.
    10. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
    11. Jun Liu, 2005. "An Equilibrium Model of Rare-Event Premia and Its Implication for Option Smirks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 131-164.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:755-793 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2809-2834 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wing H. Chan, 2003. "A correlated bivariate Poisson jump model for foreign exchange," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 669-685, November.
    15. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. "On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-173, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The time-varying and asymmetric dependence between crude oil spot and futures markets: Evidence from the Mixture copula-based ARJI–GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2298-2309.
    2. Kuttu, Saint, 2017. "Time-varying conditional discrete jumps in emerging African equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 35-54.
    3. Kuttu, Saint & Aboagye, Anthony Q.Q. & Bokpin, Godfred A., 2018. "Evidence of time-varying conditional discrete jump dynamics in sub-Saharan African foreign exchange markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 211-226.
    4. Chang, Chia-Lin & González-Serrano, Lydia & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2013. "Currency hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 164-182.
    5. He, Chi-Wei & Chang, Kuang-Liang & Wang, Yung-Jang, 2020. "Does the jump risk in the US market matter for Japan and Hong Kong? An investigation on the REIT market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    6. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Lee, Chingnun, 2020. "The asymmetric spillover effect of the Markov switching mechanism from the futures market to the spot market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 374-388.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Some Like it Smooth, and Some Like it Rough: Untangling Continuous and Jump Components in Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Asset Return Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
    3. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien Mcmahon, 2008. "Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 279-291.
    4. Chang, Charles & Fuh, Cheng-Der & Lin, Shih-Kuei, 2013. "A tale of two regimes: Theory and empirical evidence for a Markov-modulated jump diffusion model of equity returns and derivative pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3204-3217.
    5. Khalaf, Lynda & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Bilodeau, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Simulation-based exact jump tests in models with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 531-553, December.
    6. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    7. Danielsson, Jon & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "On time-scaling of risk and the square-root-of-time rule," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2701-2713, October.
    8. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J., 2008. "Multifrequency jump-diffusions: An equilibrium approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 207-226, January.
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Continuous‐Time Equity Return Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1239-1284, June.
    10. Pablo Jose Campos de Carvalho & Aparna Gupta, 2018. "Multivariate Jump Diffusion Model with Markovian Contagion," Working Papers Series 482, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Moreno, Manuel & Serrano, Pedro & Stute, Winfried, 2011. "Statistical properties and economic implications of jump-diffusion processes with shot-noise effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 656-664, November.
    12. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Lin, Bing-Huei & Yeh, Shih-Kuo, 2000. "On the distribution and conditional heteroscedasticity in Taiwan stock prices," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 367-395, December.
    14. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN.
    15. Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M, 2020. "A Multivariate GARCH-Jump Mixture Model," MPRA Paper 104770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, and Sebastien McMahon, 2015. "The Convenience Yield and the Informational Content of the Oil Futures Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    17. Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2005. "A Class of Markovian Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Jump-Diffusions," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2005, January-A.
    18. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
    19. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel C.A. & Podolskij, Mark, 2014. "Fact or friction: Jumps at ultra high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 576-599.
    20. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "Infrequent Shocks and Rating Revenue Insurance: A Contingent Claims Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:12:y:2008:i:2:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.