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Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism II: Liberalizing Transitions

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  • Noland Marcus

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Long-lived undemocratic political regimes are ubiquitous in the Arab world. The likelihood of a transition declines as a country liberalizes and approaches the democratic asymptote. Worldwide democracy waves are positively associated with the likelihood of transition. Adherence to Islam among the population is uncorrelated with the likelihood of a liberalizing episode, but the Arab population share is negatively correlated with the likelihood of a liberalizing transition. For the Arab countries of the Middle East, the odds on liberalizing transitions occurring are low but rising, and alternative interpretations of the Arab population share variable are important in this regard.

Suggested Citation

  • Noland Marcus, 2008. "Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism II: Liberalizing Transitions," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 31-40, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:4:y:2008:i:1:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/1475-3693.1112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Noland Marcus, 2008. "Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism I: The Level of Democracy," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, January.
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    6. Noland, Marcus, 2005. "Religion and economic performance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1215-1232, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    2. Tcheta-Bampa, Tcheta-Bampa & Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2018. "Dynamisation de la malédiction des ressources naturelles en Afrique sur les performances économiques : institution et guerre froide [Curse of Natural Resources and Economic Performance in Africa: I," MPRA Paper 86510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Murshed Syed Mansoob, 2008. "Development despite Modest Growth in the Middle East," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-31, September.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Growth Lab Working Papers 36, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    6. Unbreen Qayyum & Sohail Anjum & Samina Sabir, 2020. "Religion and economic development: new insights," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 793-834, November.

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