Predicting the Maximum Lead from Final Scores in Basketball: A Diffusion Model
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1473
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- M. J. Maher, 1982. "Modelling association football scores," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 36(3), pages 109-118, September.
- Jonah Berger & Devin Pope, 2011. "Can Losing Lead to Winning?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 817-827, May.
- Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010.
"Issues in sports forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
- Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Leonardo Egidi & Nicola Torelli, 2021. "Comparing Goal-Based and Result-Based Approaches in Modelling Football Outcomes," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 801-813, August.
- da Costa, Igor Barbosa & Marinho, Leandro Balby & Pires, Carlos Eduardo Santos, 2022. "Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 895-909.
- Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga," MPRA Paper 44608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Oberhofer, Harald & Philippovich, Tassilo & Winner, Hannes, 2010.
"Distance matters in away games: Evidence from the German football league,"
Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 200-211, April.
- Oberhofer, Harald & Philippovich, Tassilo & Winner, Hannes, 2009. "Distance matters in away games: Evidence from the German Football League," Working Papers in Economics 2009-1, University of Salzburg.
- Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Szczecinski Leszek, 2022. "G-Elo: generalization of the Elo algorithm by modeling the discretized margin of victory," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14, March.
- Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 916-932.
- Lasek, Jan & Gagolewski, Marek, 2021. "Interpretable sports team rating models based on the gradient descent algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1071.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit, 2015.
"A dynamic bivariate Poisson model for analysing and forecasting match results in the English Premier League,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(1), pages 167-186, January.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit, 2012. "A Dynamic Bivariate Poisson Model for Analysing and Forecasting Match Results in the English Premier League," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-099/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Lit, Rutger, 2019.
"Forecasting football match results in national league competitions using score-driven time series models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 797-809.
- Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman & Rutger Lit, 2017. "Forecasting Football Match Results in National League Competitions Using Score-Driven Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-062/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
- P. Gorgi & S. J. Koopman & R. Lit, 2023.
"Estimation of final standings in football competitions with a premature ending: the case of COVID-19,"
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 233-250, March.
- Paolo Gorgi & Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit, 2020. "Estimation of final standings in football competitions with premature ending: the case of COVID-19," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-070/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021.
"Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
- J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2019. "Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-18, Department of Economics, University of Reading, revised 01 Aug 2020.
- Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018.
"Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited,"
MPRA Paper
87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rebeggiani, Luca & Gross, Johannes, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181563, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
- Jiřà LahviÄ ka, 2015. "The Impact of Playoffs on Seasonal Uncertainty in the Czech Ice Hockey Extraliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 784-801, October.
- Bäker Agnes & Mechtel Mario & Vetter Karin, 2012. "Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 224-246, June.
- Andreas Heuer & Oliver Rubner, 2014. "Optimizing the Prediction Process: From Statistical Concepts to the Case Study of Soccer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-9, September.
- Giovanni Angelini & Luca De Angelis, 2017.
"PARX model for football match predictions,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 795-807, November.
- Giovanni Angelini & Luca De Angelis, 2016. "PARX model for football matches predictions," Quaderni di Dipartimento 2, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
More about this item
Keywords
modeling sports results; basketball; diffusion process; maximum lead;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:8:y:2012:i:4:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.