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Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Canada: An Evidence from Time-Series Tests

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  • Singh Tarlok

    (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Nathan Campus, 170 Kessels Road, Brisbane, Queensland-4111, Australia)

Abstract

This study examines the effects of international trade and investment on output and tests the null hypothesis of Granger non-causality among trade, investment and economic growth in Canada. The long-run model is estimated using several single-equation and system estimators to assess the robustness of results across methodologies. The single-equation, OLSEG, GMM, DOLS, NLLS and FMOLS, estimates of the model provide consistent support for the positive and significant long-run effects of exports and investment on output. The ML system estimates cross-validate the cointegrating relationship and reinforce the positive effects of exports and investment and the negative effects of imports on output. The over-parameterized level-VAR estimates suggest unidirectional Granger-causality from exports, imports and investment each to output. The estimates of the model with structural breaks support the long-run relationship, though the evidence is not unambiguous ubiquitously across all the tests. The evidence supporting the positive and significant long-run effects overwhelms the evidence providing weak or no support for the effects of trade on output. The results underline the need for the acceleration of exports (and investment) to offset the demand-reducing effects of imports and escalate the altitudes of output and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Singh Tarlok, 2015. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Canada: An Evidence from Time-Series Tests," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 361-407, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:15:y:2015:i:3:p:361-407:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/gej-2014-0009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Kim, Jae-Young, 2006. "Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 379-394, October.
    2. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    3. Andersson, Krister, 1990. "The U.S.-Canada free trade agreement: Who will be better off?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 693-713.
    4. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; economic growth; cointegration; VECM; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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