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Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows

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  • Carvalho Filho Irineu de

    (International Monetary Fund,Washington, D.C., United States of America)

Abstract

During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk-off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk-off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk-off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk-off episodes.

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  • Carvalho Filho Irineu de, 2015. "Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 439-463, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:16:y:2015:i:4:p:439-463
    DOI: 10.1111/geer.12063
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    1. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    5. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2019. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Post-Print hal-02067096, HAL.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2019. "International Effects Of Euro Area Versus U.S. Policy Uncertainty: A Favar Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 453-481, January.
    7. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Working Papers hal-04141705, HAL.
    9. Linda S. Goldberg & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "International Capital Flow Pressures," NBER Working Papers 24286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2017. "Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives," Discussion papers 17048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Hasler, Nicole, 2016. "US International Equity Investment and Economic Fundamentals," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145840, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Sessi Tokpavi & Christophe Boucher, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2013. "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/228, International Monetary Fund.
    15. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2019. "Time-Variant Safe-Haven Currency Status and Determinants," Discussion papers 19048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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