IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v12y2012i1n9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Lin Ching-Yi

    (National Tsing Hua University)

Abstract

This study offers an explanation of the common empirical finding in the literature that exchange rate uncertainty only slightly or insignificantly impacts export volume. When export volume is decomposed into the extensive and intensive margins, panel regressions presented in this study reveal that exchange rate uncertainty negatively affects the extensive margin and positively affects the intensive margin, with both effects being statistically significant. These two opposing effects cancel each other out when combined, producing an insignificant effect on overall export volume. This study goes on to develop an analytically tractable monetary model of heterogeneous firms and endogenous extensive and intensive margins, which predicts these empirical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Ching-Yi, 2012. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-37, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:1:n:9
    DOI: 10.1515/1935-1690.2389
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.2389
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/1935-1690.2389?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Naknoi, Kanda, 2008. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 645-663, April.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    4. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2017. "Tradability, Productivity, and International Economic Integration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 9, pages 249-284, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    6. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 8, pages 211-248, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    8. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    10. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    11. Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
    12. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    13. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
    14. Paul R. Bergin & Ching‐Yi Lin, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 201-227.
    15. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    16. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    17. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    18. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    19. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
    20. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
    21. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    22. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
    23. Jeffrey Frankel & Christopher Pissarides, 2009. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran08-1, June.
    24. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    25. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xiaohui & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "Export diversification and exchange-rate regimes: Evidences from 72 developing countries," MPRA Paper 66448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bistline, John E., 2014. "Natural gas, uncertainty, and climate policy in the US electric power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 433-442.
    3. Bin Qiu & Kuntal K. Das & W. Robert Reed, 2020. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Chinese Trade: A Dual Margin Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3709-3731, December.
    4. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    5. Ambrose, Aimee & Eadson, Will & Pinder, James, 2016. "The role of actor-networks in the early stage mobilisation of low carbon heat networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 144-152.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul R. Bergin & Ching-Yi Lin, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 201-227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
    3. Wong, Kin-Ming & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2016. "Does monetary policy matter for trade?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 107-125.
    4. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    5. Dutt, Pushan & Mihov, Ilian & Van Zandt, Timothy, 2013. "The effect of WTO on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 204-219.
    6. Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration," Working Papers 294, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    7. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2011. "One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 419-435, August.
    8. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
    9. Imura, Yuko & Shukayev, Malik, 2019. "The extensive margin of trade and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 417-441.
    10. Raddatz, Claudio, 2011. "Over the hedge : exchange rate volatility, commodity price correlations, and the structure of trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5590, The World Bank.
    11. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    12. Feng, Ling & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2013. "Financial shocks and exports," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 39-55.
    13. Roc Armenter & Miklós Koren, 2015. "Economies Of Scale And The Size Of Exporters," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 482-511, June.
    14. Katheryn Russ, 2012. "Exchange rate volatility and first-time entry by multinational firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(2), pages 269-295, June.
    15. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    16. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Johannsen, Florian, 2017. "Monetary uncertainty and trade in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A firm-level analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 476-490.
    17. Naknoi, Kanda, 2015. "Exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in the extensive margin of trade," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 322-339.
    18. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    19. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration," NBER Working Papers 11637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2007. "Productivity, terms of trade and the `home market effect'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 99-127, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:1:n:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.