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Economic Implications of WTO Negotiations on Non‐agricultural Market Access

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  • Sam Laird

Abstract

The economic implications of current WTO negotiations are likely to be far reaching. The World Bank and UNCTAD estimate annual global gains in agriculture and non‐agricultural products (including fish) of about $70−150 billion each under various scenarios and technical assumptions. Liberalising trade in services could be even more important, especially if agreement were reached to facilitate the temporary movement of labour (Mode 4 under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, GATS). Some qualifications, however, are in order. First, gains are likely to be spread unevenly across countries and across sectors; and, second, short‐term adjustment costs might precede long‐term gains. Much depends on how ambitious liberalisation is and on policies to facilitate adjustment. This paper examines the Doha mandate in non‐agricultural market access (NAMA) and the current state of the WTO negotiations, in particular some key proposals being considered at the December 2005 Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong. We analyse various scenarios and their implications for trade, welfare, output, employment, revenues and preferences, as well as the distributional effects across countries and sectors. We note possible adjustment problems related to balance of payments and structural adjustment, as well as revenue and preference losses. These suggest the need for ‘aid for trade’ to help developing countries realise gains possible from WTO negotiations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Laird, 2006. "Economic Implications of WTO Negotiations on Non‐agricultural Market Access," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(10), pages 1363-1376, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:29:y:2006:i:10:p:1363-1376
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00848.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What Is at Stake for Developing Countries?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 169-195.
    2. Martin Rama, 2002. "Globalization and Workers in Developing Countries," Economics Study Area Working Papers 41, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
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