IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v28y2005i10p1509-1537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Really Responsible for East Asia's Export and Business Cycles? A Commentary on

Author

Listed:
  • Masanaga Kumakura

Abstract

In a paper published in The World Economy, Ronald McKinnon and Gunther Schnabl claim that fluctuations in the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate are the principal causal factor behind the export and business cycles in East Asian countries (McKinnon and Schnabl, 2003). Their econometric work, however, suffers from at least two important difficulties. First, while McKinnon and Schnabl preclude industry shocks as an explanation for the East Asian countries’ macroeconomic fluctuations, cyclical fluctuations in the global electronics industry have a significant impact on their short‐run export and output dynamics. Second, although McKinnon and Schnabl assume that the relative industrial competitiveness of Japan and other East Asian countries moves in tandem with fluctuations in the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate, the empirical validity of this assumption is not indisputable. Once these two issues are taken into account properly, it becomes very difficult to make a convincing case for the yen/dollar exchange rate being the main driver of East Asia's macroeconomic instability. A brief critique will also be made of another paper that has appeared recently in The World Economy (Doraisami, 2004), which models Malaysia's pre‐crisis export dynamics using the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate as a proxy for the country's export competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Masanaga Kumakura, 2005. "Is the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Really Responsible for East Asia's Export and Business Cycles? A Commentary on," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1509-1537, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:28:y:2005:i:10:p:1509-1537
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00745.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00745.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00745.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2001. "Crisis and Recovery in Malaysia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2340.
    2. Stephan Haggard, 2000. "Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 107, January.
    3. Mr. Markus Rodlauer, 2000. "Philippines: Toward Sustainable and Rapid Growth," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/006, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jomo K.S., 2005. "Malaysia´S September 1998 Controls: Background, Context, Impacts, Comparisons, Implications, Lessons," G-24 Discussion Papers 36, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    2. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2008. "The Malaysian Capital Controls: A Success Story?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 31-74, Winter.
    3. Hal Hill, 2018. "Southeast Asia in the global economy: a selective analytical survey," Departmental Working Papers 2018-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    4. Mansor Ibrahim, 2006. "Integration or Segmentation of the Malaysian Equity Market: An Analysis of Pre- and Post-Capital Controls," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 424-443.
    5. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/216, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Morris Goldstein, 2017. "IMF Structural Programs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 16, pages 553-638, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    8. Hurşit GÜNEŞ, 2021. "The Political Anatomy of Economic Crises – The Case of Turkey: 1945-2018," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 7(2), pages 91-109, December .
    9. Seghezza, Elena & Morelli, Pierluigi & Pittaluga, Giovanni B., 2017. "Reserve accumulation and exchange rate policy in China: The authoritarian elite's aim of political survival," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-51.
    10. Marcus Noland, 2007. "South Korea's Experience with International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 481-528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mr. Takuji Komatsuzaki, 2016. "Improving Public Infrastructure in the Philippines," IMF Working Papers 2016/039, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hal Hill, 2005. "The Malaysian Economy: Past Successes, Future Challenges (Paper for inclusion in a volume on Malaysia edited by Dr Colin Barlow and to be published by Edward Elgar)," Departmental Working Papers 2005-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    13. Funke, Manuel & Schularick, Moritz & Trebesch, Christoph, 2016. "Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870–2014," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 227-260.
    14. Aswicahyono, Haryo & Bird, Kelly & Hill, Hal, 2009. "Making Economic Policy in Weak, Democratic, Post-crisis States: An Indonesian Case Study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 354-370, February.
    15. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2006. "Stock Prices and Bank Loan Dynamics in a Developing Country: The Case of Malaysia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 71-89, May.
    16. Bryan K. Ritchie, 2004. "Politics and Economic Reform in Malaysia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-655, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Soo Khoon Goh & Guay Lim & Nilss Olekalns, 2006. "Deviations from uncovered interest parity in Malaysia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 745-759.
    18. Ethan Kaplan & Dani Rodrik, 2002. "Did the Malaysian Capital Controls Work?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 393-440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Vijay Joshi, 2003. "Financial Globalisation, Exchange Rates and Capital Controls in Developing Countries," Departmental Working Papers 2003-19, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    20. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:28:y:2005:i:10:p:1509-1537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.