IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sysdyn/v33y2017i2p89-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi†State Dynamic Population Model

Author

Listed:
  • John P. Ansah
  • Victoria Koh
  • Chi†Tsun Chiu
  • Choy†Lye Chei
  • Yi Zeng
  • Zhao†Xue Yin
  • Xiao†Ming Shi
  • David B. Matchar

Abstract

China is aging rapidly, and the number of Chinese elderly with dementia is expected to rise. This paper projects, up to year 2060, the number of Chinese elderly within four distinct cognitive states. A multi†state population model was developed using system dynamics and parametrized with age–gender†specific transition rates (between intact, mild, moderate and severe cognitive impairment and death) estimated from two waves (2012 and 2014) of a community†based cohort of elderly in China aged ≥65 years (N = 1824). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition rates. The number of elderly with any degree of cognitive impairment increases; with severe cognitive impairment increasing the most, at 698%. Among elderly with cognitive impairment, the proportion of very old elderly (age ≥ 80) is expected to rise from 53% to 78% by 2060. This will affect the demand for social and health services China. Copyright © 2017 System Dynamics Society

Suggested Citation

  • John P. Ansah & Victoria Koh & Chi†Tsun Chiu & Choy†Lye Chei & Yi Zeng & Zhao†Xue Yin & Xiao†Ming Shi & David B. Matchar, 2017. "Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi†State Dynamic Population Model," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 33(2), pages 89-111, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:33:y:2017:i:2:p:89-111
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1581
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/sdr.1581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Pastor Ansah & Keith Low Sheng Hng & Salman Ahmad & Cheryl Goh, 2021. "Evaluating the impact of upstream and downstream interventions on chronic kidney disease and dialysis care: a simulation analysis," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 37(1), pages 32-58, January.
    2. John Pastor Ansah & Shawn Tan Yi Wei & Tessa Lui Shi Min, 2020. "An evaluation of the impact of aggressive diabetes and hypertension management on chronic kidney diseases at the population level: a simulation analysis," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(4), pages 497-522, October.
    3. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    4. Jair Andrade & Jim Duggan, 2021. "A Bayesian approach to calibrate system dynamics models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 37(4), pages 283-309, October.
    5. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:33:y:2017:i:2:p:89-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/0883-7066 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.