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Learning to time capacity expansions: an empirical analysis of the worldwide petrochemical industry, 1975–95

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  • James Henderson
  • Karel Cool

Abstract

This paper examines how firms may learn to better time their capacity expansion decisions through their own and their rivals' past experiences. A review of the literature shows that there may be several reasons for firms to bunch their capacity additions or ‘hop on an investment bandwagon.’ These reasons include coordinating through maintaining market shares, information effects, and decision‐making biases. Given the substantial evidence of organizational learning, firms may be expected to improve their timing skills of capacity additions through their previous capacity expansion experience. Hypotheses are developed both for proprietary learning and learning at the industry level, and for forgetting. These hypotheses are tested on a database consisting of 72 companies operating in the petrochemicals industry in the United States, Europe, and Japan from 1975 to 1995. The results indicate that learning in timing capacity expansion decisions comes primarily from within firms through an accumulation of their poor outcomes. However, this timing skill is far more apparent in greenfield than incremental expansion decisions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • James Henderson & Karel Cool, 2003. "Learning to time capacity expansions: an empirical analysis of the worldwide petrochemical industry, 1975–95," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 393-413, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:24:y:2003:i:5:p:393-413
    DOI: 10.1002/smj.309
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Shi & Brian L. Connelly & Jeremy D. Mackey & Abhinav Gupta, 2019. "Placing their bets: The influence of strategic investment on CEO pay‐for‐performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2047-2077, December.
    2. Fan, Terence Ping Ching & Tan, Alex Tai Loong & Geng, Xuesong, 2014. "Rapid capacity expansions and failure: A trap for new airline entrants?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 176-191.
    3. Panikos Georgallis & João Albino-Pimentel & Nina Kondratenko, 2021. "Jurisdiction shopping and foreign location choice: The role of market and nonmarket experience in the European solar energy industry," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(5), pages 853-877, July.
    4. Vinit M. Desai, 2020. "Can Busy Organizations Learn to Get Better? Distinguishing Between the Competing Effects of Constrained Capacity on the Organizational Learning Process," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 67-84, January.
    5. Jung, Eunjun & Lee, Changjun & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "Effective strategies to attract crowdfunding investment based on the novelty of business ideas," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Reha Karadag & Laura Poppo, 2023. "Strategic resource decay," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1534-1561, June.
    7. Rodolphe Durand & Panayiotis (Panikos) Georgallis, 2018. "Differential Firm Commitment to Industries Supported by Social Movement Organizations," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 154-171, February.
    8. Choi, Yohan & Cho, Sam Yul, 2024. "The effect of foreign competition on firm risk-taking: Evidence from tariff reduction," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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