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The Effect of Social Distancing on the Early Spread of the Novel Coronavirus

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  • Gregory Price
  • Eric van Holm

Abstract

This article quantifies the effect of individual social distancing on the spread of the novel coronavirus. To do so, we use data on time spent by individuals on activities that would potentially expose them to crowds from the American Time Use Survey linked with state‐level data on positive tests from the COVID Tracking Project. We estimate count data specifications of observed COVID‐19 infections at the state level as a function of control demographic variables, and a measure of social distance that captures the amount of time individuals across the states spend in activities that potentially expose them to crowds. Parameter estimates reveal that the number of state‐level novel coronavirus infections decrease with respect to our measure of individual social distance. From a practical perspective, our parameter estimates suggest that if the typical individual in a U.S. state were to spend eight hours away from crowds completely, this would translate into approximately 240,000 fewer COVID‐19 infections across the states. Our results suggest that, at least in the United States, social distancing policies are effective in slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Price & Eric van Holm, 2021. "The Effect of Social Distancing on the Early Spread of the Novel Coronavirus," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2331-2340, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:5:p:2331-2340
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12988
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    Cited by:

    1. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2021. "Drivers of COVID-19 vaccinations: vaccine delivery and delivery efficiency in the United States," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-69, June.
    2. Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth & Eric Edlund & Avanti Mukherjee, 2023. "Analysis of Hybrid Epidemiological-Economic Models of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 585-612, October.
    3. Goel, Rajeev K. & Nelson, Michael A. & Goel, Viraat Y., 2021. "COVID-19 vaccine rollout—scale and speed carry different implications for corruption," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 503-520.
    4. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2021. "COVID-19 internet vaccination information and vaccine administration: evidence from the United States," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 716-734, October.

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