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Rational Expectations And Pro Sports Leagues

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  • Rodney Fort
  • James Quirk

Abstract

We put a new set of shoes on that old workhorse, the competitive talent market (CTM) model in sports economics. There exist unique rational expectations equilibria for both national football league (NFL‐type leagues) and major league baseball (MLB‐type leagues) under the CTM model. A cursory statistical test fails to reject the empirical implications for the NFL‐type league. The model also suggests empirical tests of whether or not talent demand (marginal revenues from talent), including induced effects, actually slopes down. But like all models, the competitive talent model should be applied in its context. It describes highly cooperative North American sports leagues that have a wealth of common information. But it may not do the same for other leagues if they lack this common information.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 2007. "Rational Expectations And Pro Sports Leagues," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(3), pages 374-387, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:54:y:2007:i:3:p:374-387
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2007.00420.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 1995. "Cross-subsidization, Incentives, and Outcomes in Professional Team Sports Leagues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1265-1299, September.
    2. El-Hodiri, Mohamed & Quirk, James, 1971. "An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 1302-1319, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    4. Stefan Szymanski & Stefan Késenne, 2010. "Competitive Balance and Gate Revenue Sharing in Team Sports," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 7, pages 229-243, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Stefan Kesenne, 2000. "Revenue Sharing and Competitive Balance in Professional Team Sports," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(1), pages 56-65, February.
    6. Stefan Szymanski, 2004. "Professional Team Sports Are Only a Game," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(2), pages 111-126, May.
    7. Stefan Késenne, 2005. "Revenue Sharing and Competitive Balance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 98-106, February.
    8. Daniel R. Marburger, 1997. "Gate Revenue Sharing And Luxury Taxes In Professional Sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(2), pages 114-123, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus LANG & Alexander RATHKE & Marco RUNKEL, 2010. "The Economic Consequences Of Foreigner Rules In National Sports Leagues," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 31, pages 47-64.
    2. Madden, Paul, 2012. "Fan welfare maximization as a club objective in a professional sports league," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 560-578.
    3. Helmut Dietl & Rodney Fort & Markus Lang, 2011. "International Sports League Comparisons," Working Papers 0042, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA).
    4. Stefan Kesenne, 2009. "What’s the game team owners play?," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 5(1), pages 81-87, Maggio.
    5. Helmut M. Dietl & Markus Lang & Alexander Rathke, 2011. "The Combined Effect Of Salary Restrictions And Revenue Sharing In Sports Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 447-463, April.
    6. Dietl, Helmut M. & Franck, Egon & Hasan, Tariq & Lang, Markus, 2009. "Governance of professional sports leagues--Cooperatives versus contracts," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 127-137, June.
    7. Helmut M. Dietl & Martin Grossmann & Markus Lang, 2011. "Competitive Balance and Revenue Sharing in Sports Leagues With Utility-Maximizing Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 284-308, June.
    8. Jason Winfree & Rodney Fort, 2012. "Nash Conjectures and Talent Supply in Sports League Modeling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 306-313, June.
    9. Martin Grossmann & Helmut Dietl & Markus Lang, 2010. "Revenue Sharing and Competitive Balance in a Dynamic Contest Model," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 36(1), pages 17-36, February.
    10. Helmut Dietl & Egon Franck & Martin Grossmann & Markus Lang, 2009. "Contest Theory and its Applications in Sports," Working Papers 0105, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
    11. Duane W. Rockerbie & Stephen T. Easton, 2019. "Of Bricks and Bats: New Stadiums, Talent Supply, and Team Performance in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 3-24, January.
    12. Duane W. Rockerbie & Stephen T. Easton, 2010. "The Ebbs and Flows of the Game: Multiple Equilibria in a Sports League Model," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 172-185, April.
    13. Thadeu Gasparetto & Angel Barajas, 2022. "Wage Dispersion and Team Performance: The Moderation Role of Club Size," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 548-566, June.
    14. Markus Lang & Martin Grossmann & Philipp Theiler, 2011. "The Sugar Daddy Game: How Wealthy Investors Change Competition in Professional Team Sports," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 167(4), pages 557-577, December.
    15. Geoffrey N Tuck & Athol R Whitten, 2013. "Lead Us Not into Tanktation: A Simulation Modelling Approach to Gain Insights into Incentives for Sporting Teams to Tank," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-10, November.
    16. Rodney Fort & James Quirk, 2010. "Optimal Competitive Balance in Single-Game Ticket Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(6), pages 587-601, December.

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