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Single or double bounded contingent valuation? A Bayesian test

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  • Roberto León
  • Carmelo J. León

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of asymptotic approximations of the Bayes factor to appraise the relative likelihoods of the bivariate and the restricted double bounded models for contingent valuation. The performance of the Bayes factor test is studied by Monte Carlo simulation showing that it correctly chooses the bivariate model when appropriate, but tends to over predict the double bounded model when the correlation coefficient is not estimated accurately. However, the quadratic error in estimating willingness to pay is reduced if the model preferred by the test is chosen. In addition, we consider the effect of averaging the estimates of WTP from both models, weighting each model with its posterior probability. The results show that ‘model averaging’ across the competing hypothesis further reduces the squared error. The applications with two data sets on National Parks show that the test rejects the restricted double bounded hypotheses against the bivariate model.

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  • Roberto León & Carmelo J. León, 2003. "Single or double bounded contingent valuation? A Bayesian test," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(2), pages 174-188, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:50:y:2003:i:2:p:174-188
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9485.5002004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcella Veronesi & Anna Alberini & Joseph Cooper, 2011. "Implications of Bid Design and Willingness-To-Pay Distribution for Starting Point Bias in Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 199-215, June.
    2. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser, 2009. "Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'dont know' responses and misreporting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1137-1152.

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